Quick overview

---

XRP has declined by nearly 15% over the past week and 3% today, despite a sharp rise in exchange outflows. Deeper signals suggest that the latest buying surge may be a trap, even though it initially an accumulation. While retail investors show clear enthusiasm, major investor groups and key technical patterns warn that XRP’s recovery might not last.

This indicates that long-term holders are selling rather than preparing for a comeback.
XRP is expected to move between $ 2. 2.3 and $ 2. 2.5 over the next week. A decline seems more likely because the chances of additional gains are low (less than 20%). The default scenario is the price remaining in a sideways range between $ 2 30 and $ 2 44. While a bullish move above $ 2. 50 seems unlikely; a clear drop below $ 2.30 could trigger a fall toward $ 2.18–$ 2.20.

Two other metrics support this outlook. The Smart Money Index (SMI), which measured the positioning of experienced traders, has fallen to its second-lowest point since early October. This reflects a decrease in rebound confidence. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which monitors the flow of money into or out of large wallets, stays below zero.

The lack of significant buying by large wallets indicates weak conviction. Taken together, these indicators suggest that major players are pulling back, despite price volatility attracting many traders.

Exchange outflows have risen despite poor confidence among large holders, which is often seen as a bullish sign. From –12. 7 million XRP on October 10 to –960 million XRP on October 15, the Exchange Net Position Change- measuring the movement of XRP in or out of exchanges- has increased by over 7,400 percent. This signals that investors are withdrawing tokens from exchanges, reducing immediate selling pressure.

Smart money, whales, and long-term holders are staying on the sidelines, implying that this activity likely points to potential retail accumulation—smaller investors hoping to profit from a rebound. Retail-driven buying without whale support has historically caused rallies to fade quickly, trapping late buyers as prices reverse.