Bitcoin Holds $108,000 Support Amid Macro Headwinds, CPI Data Looms as Key Catalyst
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $108,000 right now. It has stayed quite stable over the previous 24 hours, even if there are more geopolitical
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $108,000, maintaining stability despite geopolitical tensions and technical challenges.
- There is a divergence between spot and derivatives markets, with spot Bitcoin ETF inflows increasing while perpetual futures traders are selling.
- The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release is critical for determining Bitcoin's direction amid current market volatility.
- Analysts suggest that a weaker CPI report could bolster Bitcoin's price, while bearish momentum may push it below $100,000.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading at $108,000 right now. It has stayed quite stable over the previous 24 hours, even if there are more geopolitical and technical problems. As trade tensions between the US and China rise, President Trump’s tariffs go up, and the government shuts down for the first time in history, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is at a crucial point.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Divergence Between Spot and Derivatives Markets
Market structure data tells a strong story of forces that are at odds with each other. Since the October 10 sell-off to $107,000, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been slowly rising. The Coinbase Premium Index and spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) have also been moving in the right direction. This shows that both individual and institutional US investors are buying a lot.
The derivatives market, on the other hand, reveals a different narrative. Traders of Binance perpetual futures have been selling a lot, which has led to a negative perps differential that adds to the downward pressure. The difference between spot delta and perps-driven selling shows that there is still significant buying demand, but it also shows that perps-driven selling is a major reason why prices aren’t going up. This movement has created a support zone between $107,000 and $108,000, where spot buyers keep pushing prices upward.
The liquidation heatmap for key exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and BitMEX shows that there could be some turbulence in the future. Momentum traders may look for long liquidation clusters between $106,300 and $104,000. On the other hand, short positions may be forced to close near $115,000. Bitcoin closed the weekend CME futures gap close to $106,000, but this move didn’t keep optimistic optimism going.
Macro Headwinds: Tariffs, Gold Correlation, and Dollar Strength
Bitcoin’s connection to gold has made things even more complicated. BTC bounced back at $106,000 when it stopped being different from gold, but gold’s recent problems, which could cause it to lose $4,000 in support, have made many less excited. The quick rise above $114,000 was mostly because gold was weak, not because BTC was strong.
The DXY index shows that the US dollar is getting stronger again, which makes things much harder for Bitcoin. Analysts, on the other hand, say that any drop in the dollar could make investors more likely to “buy the dip.” Trump’s tariffs and worsening relations between the US and China are two big problems that are making traders hesitant to build fresh long positions in the futures markets, even while spot prices are going up.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Critical CPI Data Could Determine Direction
Quinn Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Lekker Capital, said that the October 10 liquidation event got rid of more leverage in both dollars and as a percentage of open interest than the whole January-April 2025 period. He said that the current opportunity is similar to the time before Trump won in 2024, which means there is a lot of room for growth.
The focus now turns to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September on Friday. This is the only piece of information the Federal Reserve has to help it make decisions about policy during the government shutdown. QCP Capital says that a weaker report of about 0.2% will “re-anchor the soft-landing trade and reinforce BTC’s upside skew as liquidity expectations improve.”
If bearish momentum picks up, Bitcoin might test $100,000 or lower again in the near future. However, economists are still cautiously hopeful that the macroeconomic events of next week will make things clearer and maybe even turn the downward trend around. The market is still choppy, illiquid, and very volatile—it’s genuine “it’s over, we’re back” territory—so Bitcoin needs to trade carefully and based on data during this time.
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