Bitcoin Holds Above $112K as Market Awaits Fed Decision and US-China Trade Resolution
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $112,500, which is down about 1.5% in the last 24 hours. This week is a big one for crypto
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading above $112,500, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours, with key resistance at $116,000.
- Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $260.23 million indicate renewed institutional interest, particularly after a significant influx of $477 million following a price drop.
- Bitcoin has reclaimed critical on-chain support near $113,000, suggesting a shift from capitulation to accumulation among investors.
- Upcoming macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and US-China trade talks, could significantly impact Bitcoin's short-term direction.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading above $112,500, which is down about 1.5% in the last 24 hours. This week is a big one for the cryptocurrency market because of two huge macroeconomic events. Since its record liquidation-driven sell-off on October 10, the leading digital asset has shown strength, rising 13% from those lows. However, it is still having trouble breaking over $116,000, which could determine its short-term direction.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: $110K Support to $116K Resistance
Bitcoin’s recovery has hit a key technical point when order book data from major exchanges shows a lot of selling pressure. According to TRDR, sellers are continuously blocking intra-day breakouts over $116,000. On Coinbase spot markets and Binance perpetual futures, there are concentrated ask walls between $117,000 and $118,000.
The analysis of the 4-hour chart shows that daily closes over $116,000 are necessary to confirm a change in the positive trend. But as momentum rises, futures traders have started pulling their ask orders at $115,000 to $116,000 levels, which has led to $49.83 million in short liquidations in the last 12 hours. Bitcoin is bouncing between support around $110,000 and resistance at $116,000, which is like a “ping-pong” effect.
Even though it’s hard to get past overhead resistance, there are a few favorable signs that the market is strong. Global exchange open interest has risen to $31.48 billion from a low of $28.11 billion on October 11. However, it is still much behind the $40.39 billion that was recorded when Bitcoin hit its highest price of $124,600.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal Renewed Institutional Interest
The return of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which have brought in $260.23 million in net flows over the last three trading sessions, is a very positive sign. The most important thing to note is that on October 21, there was a huge $477 million influx just days after BTC fell below $108,000. This suggests that institutional investors recognized the downturn as a chance to buy.
But the way people act in the market makes it evident that there is a big difference between different types of investors. Hyblock’s data shows that larger investors (those with positions between $1 million and $10 million) keep selling into rallies, while smaller investors (those with orders between $1,000 and $10,000) have been buying on falls. This pattern of distribution shows that experienced traders are taking profits while smaller investors stay bullish.
Critical On-Chain Support Reclaimed After Weeks of Pressure
Bitcoin has reached a big goal by getting back the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price near $113,000. This is a big deal for the blockchain. This number, which shows the average cost basis of recent market participants, is an important psychological line that often divides optimistic and negative sentiment.
Darkfost, a top analyst, said that Bitcoin’s recent weekly close over $114,500 verified this recapture for the first time in weeks. During the 2024 correction period, BTC tried four times to break above this level but failed each time. It finally established it as support and entered a new growth phase. The present rebound shows that new investors are becoming more confident, and the market may be moving from capitulation to accumulation.
Bitcoin has never dropped below the annual STH Realized Price, which is now $94,000, during the current bull cycle. Every time the price has reached this level, it has bounced back, making it a strong support level for the overall rise. If it falls below $94,000, it would probably mean that the market is moving from a mid-cycle correction to a longer bearish phase.
Macroeconomic Catalysts Loom Large
Two big things happening this week will have a big effect on Bitcoin’s short-term future. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will reveal its decision about interest rates. Most people think that the benchmark rate will be decreased by 25 basis points. Traders have been cutting back on their exposure ahead of the announcement, which is a common pattern in crypto markets, even though most people think it will be good for risk assets.
The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday may be even more important. If trade talks break down or the deal that comes out of them is seen as bad by the markets, it might have bad effects on both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Cautious Optimism with Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin looks like it will keep consolidating in the foreseeable future, according to current technical and on-chain analysis. A breakout could happen if macro conditions improve.
- Bullish Case: If Bitcoin can stay above the support zone of $113,000 to $114,000 and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting ends with a dovish decision, followed by good news about US-China trade, a clear break over the $117,500 resistance level might lead to $120,000 in the short term. The STH Realized Price and open interest going back up corroborate this idea.
- Base Case: It’s more likely that the market will stay in a range between $110,000 support and $116,000 resistance until the big events this week make things clearer. The present consolidation above the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour timeframe implies that bulls are protecting important support, but momentum is still low.
- Bearish Case: If the price doesn’t stay over $113,000, especially if macro events don’t go as planned, it could go back to $111,000 and maybe even $108,000. The larger rising structure will be in place as long as Bitcoin stays above the annual STH Realized Price of $94,000.
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