Quick overview

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OPEC+ members are leaning toward another modest production increase for December ahead of an online meeting on Sunday.

According to delegates, who asked not to be named due to the confidential nature of discussions, key members of the Saudi-led group are debating an increase of roughly 137,000 barrels per day, matching those made in October and November.

Bloomberg reported that delegates viewed the small increase as the worst-case scenario. After quickly resuming another layer of production earlier this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are gradually restoring 1.65 million barrels per day, which was halted two years ago. Despite warnings of a larger glut next year and signs that a long-awaited surplus is beginning to form, they are moving forward.

According to the International Energy Agency in Paris, global supplies could exceed demand by more than 3 million barrels per day this quarter, leading to an unprecedented glut next year. However, because some members offset past overproduction and others struggle to increase output, the organization’s actual production increases have fallen short of the targeted volumes, limiting their market impact.