Ethereum Holds Above $2,800 Despite 5% Daily Decline, Valuation Models Signal Deep Undervaluation
Ethereum (ETH) is now worth more than $2,800, but it has dropped almost 5% in the last 24 hours as the cryptocurrency market as a whole
Quick overview
- Ethereum's current price is over $2,800, having dropped nearly 5% in the last 24 hours amidst market volatility.
- Valuation models suggest Ethereum may be significantly undervalued, with a fair value estimated between $4,600 and $4,800.
- Despite positive accumulation signals from large holders, the Revenue Yield model indicates potential downside risks for Ethereum's price.
- Analysts predict a 'bottom-building phase' for Ethereum, with expectations of choppy trading before a potential upward trend.
Ethereum ETH/USD is now worth more than $2,800, but it has dropped almost 5% in the last 24 hours as the cryptocurrency market as a whole continues to be unpredictable. Even though it is weak right now, fresh valuation analysis shows that the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency may be significantly underpriced, with several models suggesting that a fair value is over $4,800.
Nine of Twelve Valuation Models Point to ETH Undervaluation
Ki Young Ju, CEO of the crypto analytics site CryptoQuant, says that Ethereum seems to be undervalued in nine out of twelve regularly used valuation frameworks. The average fair value from all twelve models puts the price of ETH at about $4,836, which is a possible 58% increase from where it is now.
The models, which were made by trusted specialists from academics and traditional finance, use different methods to figure out how much Ethereum is really worth. Eight of the twelve frameworks have dependability ratings of at least two on a three-tier scale, where three is the maximum level of trust.
The Metcalfe’s Law value stands out among the positive predictions, putting the price of ETH at $9,484 based on network effects and the growth of active users. This would mean that the asset is worth more than 211% less than it is now. The App Capital model, which takes into consideration all on-chain assets, such as stablecoins, ERC-20 tokens, NFTs, real-world tokenized assets, and bridged assets, says that the fair value is $4,918.
The Layer-2 architecture, which includes the whole value locked in Ethereum’s scaling ecosystem, says that ETH should be about $4,633. This means that the current market price is about 52% too low.
Critical Revenue Yield Model Presents Contrarian View
But not all signs point to a good outcome. The Revenue Yield valuation model, which ETHval says is the most reliable, gives a quite different view. This system, which values ETH by dividing annual network revenue by staking yield, says that the cryptocurrency is worth more than 57% more than its current price of over $3,000.
This model says that ETH should be worth roughly $1,296. This is because people are worried that Ethereum’s revenue is going down because transaction fees are at record lows and other blockchain networks are taking market share. This difference shows that there is still a lot of disagreement in the crypto world about how to properly value decentralized networks. Many people say that standard valuation methodologies don’t work well for new digital assets.
ETH Futures Market Shows Leverage Reset Complete
In addition to valuation indicators, on-chain data shows big changes in Ethereum’s futures markets that could affect prices in the near future. After the market downturn in the fourth quarter of 2025, ETH fell from $4,700 to as low as $2,900, which is a 38% drop. Important changes in the futures market happened at the same time as this price swing.
In late November, open interest on all exchanges fell from $21 billion to about $17 billion. This was because long bets that were too heavily leveraged were closed. This made traders have to open fresh positions with lower leverage ratios. At the same time, financing rates stayed positive but fell to about 0.002. This shows that the strong bullish mood that started in mid-2025 has cooled off a lot.
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Accumulation Phase
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently 1.27, but Binance data shows it to be close to 1.0. Both readings show that Ethereum is in a neutral to fair value zone, which means that the price will be stable for a while until the next big wave starts.
The latest bounce in the market started when ETH retested the realized price of whale addresses, which is a big deal because it shows that big holders are strengthening their positions. Ethereum Treasury BitMine’s holdings have grown to 3.63 million ETH, and a BlackRock client recently bought tens of millions of dollars worth of the cryptocurrency. This shows that whales are accumulating.
Even if institutions wanted this, ETH Spot ETF net outflows for November were $1.42 billion, showing that established investment vehicles are still under pressure to sell.
ETH/USD Technical Outlook: Bottom-Building Phase Expected
Ethereum is currently trading around $3,000, which is a small loss for the day but a gain of about 7% over the past week. The cryptocurrency is still down 22% over the past month, which means that most short-term holders are losing money.
XWIN Research Japan says that Ethereum is still in a “bottom-building phase,” even if overleveraged positions have been cleansed and whale accumulation is on the rise. Analysts think that prices will continue to be “choppy” and “sell-on-rally” in the short term as the market gets used to the recent volatility.
The research group does think that the pattern will change in a big way over time, though, as present pricing levels become more appealing for both institutional and ordinary investors to buy. The fact that too much leverage has been cleared, whales are buying, and valuation models have historically been supportive all imply that long-term investors may want to take advantage of the current levels to position themselves strategically.
Ethereum Price Prediction: $4,600-$4,800 Target Range
A realistic price estimate for Ethereum over the next 6 to 12 months is between $4,600 and $4,800. This is based on the fact that numerous valuation frameworks are coming together and the market structure is getting better. This estimate is in line with the Layer-2 valuation model ($4,633) and is close to the composite fair value ($4,836), taking into account the fact that network revenue may go down.
The main things that will help us attain this goal are: more institutions buying in, getting rid of the current ETF outflow pressures, Layer-2 scaling adoption to make the network more profitable, and the bitcoin market as a whole getting better. But investors should keep in mind the Revenue Yield model’s warning about basic revenue problems, which could limit upside potential or lengthen the bottom-building phase.
The $2,900 whale realized price and the psychological $2,800 level are two support levels to watch for risk management. Resistance is projected to be near $3,200 and $3,500 before the price moves steadily into the $4,600+ goal zone.
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