Bitcoin Rebounds Above $92K, Technical Analysis Points to Critical $86K Support Zone
Bitcoin has made a big comeback after a rough start to December. It has risen back above $92,000 and gained more than 6.5% in the last 24h
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has rebounded above $92,000 after a significant drop earlier in December, gaining over 6.5% in the last 24 hours.
- Investor Kevin O'Leary believes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will not significantly impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.
- Technical analysts highlight $86,000 as a crucial support level, with potential price movements projected between $83,000 and $97,000 in the near term.
- Investment firm Bitwise suggests Bitcoin is undervalued by 66% compared to global liquidity, indicating a potential for significant price appreciation.
Bitcoin BTC/USD has made a big comeback after a rough start to December. It has risen back above $92,000 and gained more than 6.5% in the last 24 hours. The price went back up after a dramatic drop that temporarily brought BTC below $84,000 earlier this week. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is over the psychologically critical $92,000 barrier. However, technical analysts warn that December’s historically tumultuous pattern means that there will be more uncertainty in the future.
O’Leary: Fed Rate Decision Won’t Impact Bitcoin Trajectory
Kevin O’Leary, a well-known investor, has said that worries about the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision having a big effect on Bitcoin’s price are unfounded. The “Mr. Wonderful” investor told Cointelegraph that he doesn’t think the Fed will drop rates this month because inflation is still high and input costs due to tariffs are going up. However, he thinks it won’t matter for BTC any way.
Even though O’Leary is doubtful, the CME’s FedWatch Tool says that 89.2% of market participants think there will be a rate drop in December. O’Leary said that Bitcoin will stay within 5% of its current price range since it has “found a level for now” and there aren’t many urgent reasons for it to go up.
BTC/USD Key Technical Levels Define Near-Term Path
After the big drop in December, when the price dropped from over $90,000 to just around $84,000, technical experts have found that $86,000 is the key level to watch in the near future. Trader Daan Crypto Trades said that Bitcoin reaches its highest or lowest point in the first 12 days about 80% of the time. The instant drop in December signals that it could test lower levels again.
Important price levels: immediate support is between $86,000 and $83,000, and the $80,400 level is very important for defense. On the upside, there is resistance at $93,000-$95,000 (a prior support level that has now become resistance). To break the bearish pattern, the price needs to rise over $97,100.
Bitcoin’s price action right now shows that it was turned down from $93,000 following a 15% rise from the low of $80,714 in November. The fact that this prior support zone hasn’t been reclaimed has had bulls worried. This might mean more consolidation or a possible retest of lower support.
Bitwise Analysis: Bitcoin Undervalued by 66% Against Global Liquidity
Investment firm Bitwise said that Bitcoin is going through one of its worst macroeconomic disconnects in years. Their cointegration model says that BTC is about 66% lower than the global money supply, which means that the model-based fair value is close to $270,000. This is a possible 194% increase if Bitcoin goes back to being a long-term liquidity anchor.
The data shows a big difference: global M2 has risen to a record $137 trillion, and Bitcoin has fallen behind by a lot. There have been over 320 central bank rate decreases in the last 24 months. At the same time, gold has taken in most of 2025’s liquidity bid and is currently 75% above the world money supply. Bitwise deems this a strong mean-reversion setup that favors Bitcoin.
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer said that Bitcoin is currently behind gold in terms of momentum and the Sharpe ratio, with the two assets at opposing ends of the spectrum. But he saw this expanding gap as a possible good time for patient investors to get in.
December Volatility Pattern and Year-End Flows
Data from the past shows that December is unpredictable, with returns ranging from profits of more than 40% to losses of more than 30%. The average return for December is +4.75%, while the median return is somewhat negative at -3.22%. This shows that volatility, not directional bias, is what makes the month stand out.
Daan Crypto Trades said that there are strange year-end flows: “This is usually the time when big holders, funds, and the like rebalance their books.” Tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing can make changes bigger in both directions, especially when there isn’t much liquidity.
Bitcoin Price Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
- Near-term (1-2 weeks): Bitcoin is projected to stay in a range between $83,000 and $97,000, with $86,000 being the most important level. If it stays over $86,000, it could move toward $90,000 to $93,000. If it doesn’t, it could test $83,000 to $85,000 again.
- December forecast: Models predict prices at the end of the month to be between $72,000 (bearish) and $94,000 (bullish), based on how prices have changed in the past.
- Medium-term outlook: If the price goes back to $97,100, the bearish structure would be broken and momentum into six figures could start up again. If it doesn’t hold $83,000, it might go down even more, to the mid $70,000s.
The Fed’s decision on December 18, Bitcoin’s technical response near the $86,000 support level, institutional flows at the end of the year, and global liquidity patterns are all important considerations. Data on mining costs points to a basic bottom at $71,000, which is around 30% lower than where we are now.
Even though the short-term outlook is unclear, Bitcoin’s huge discount compared to global monetary expansion and the possibility of a mean reversion from gold signal that there is a lot of upside potential for patient investors who are willing to deal with the tumultuous trading environment that December usually brings.
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