Bitcoin Holds $92K as Traders Await Fed Rate Decision Amid Volatility Warnings
Bitcoin's sitting at $92,300 going into Wednesday's Fed meeting. Everyone expects a 25 basis point rate cut.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently priced at $92,300 ahead of the Fed meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut that could influence risk assets.
- Ethereum has seen a 7% increase, partly due to the recent Fusaka upgrade, while the altcoin market remains weak with a low season index.
- Traders are preparing for volatility, with Bitcoin's implied volatility rising significantly, and open interest increasing across major coins.
- Recent buying activity from Bitcoin whales and a positive Coinbase premium indicate renewed interest from U.S. buyers, potentially leading to a supply squeeze.
Bitcoin’s sitting at $92,300 going into Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Everyone expects a 25 basis point rate cut, which typically helps risk assets. Still, traders are preparing for wild price action no matter what happens.
The FedWatch tool on CME shows 89% chance of a quarter-point cut. Bitcoin? It’s been stuck between $88,000 and $94,500 for a week now. Whichever way it breaks out of that range will likely tell you where prices head next.
Ethereum’s having a better day than Bitcoin, up 7%. Part of that comes from the Fusaka upgrade last week getting people interested in ETH again. The rest of the altcoin market? Not so much. CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index is at 16 out of 100, close to the lowest it’s been this cycle.
Rate announcements tend to shake things up. A 25 basis point cut is already priced in, but there’s a decent chance people sell the news anyway. That would leave anyone chasing longs at these prices stuck. Volmex shows one-day Bitcoin implied volatility jumped to 67% from 20%, though that only means roughly a 3.5% move in either direction over 24 hours.
Over on Deribit, puts cost more than calls for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. ETH traders have been using strangles and straddles in the last day, betting on big swings without picking a direction. Bitcoin folks went with risk reversals instead.
Open interest has climbed across major coins. Ethereum futures open interest jumped 8%, hitting 12.4 million ETH. That’s the most since early December. Cardano spiked to 1.80 billion ADA for a moment, matching its October peak.
Some tokens show seriously negative funding rates. BCH, XMR, and WLFI all have heavy short positioning. Meanwhile on the CME, ether futures open interest crossed back above 2 million ETH. Bitcoin positioning stays at multi-month lows.
What Powell says matters more than the cut itself. If he signals more cuts are coming in 2026, prices could stay strong. Sound too cautious even while cutting? Bitcoin might head back toward $88,000.
Bitcoin whales have been buying. Over 403,000 BTC left exchanges this week, taking supply off the table. When demand comes back, that kind of supply squeeze can push prices harder.
The Coinbase premium flipped positive recently, showing U.S. buyers are back. Bitcoin’s price gains have also beaten the increase in open interest, which suggests spot buying is driving this move rather than leveraged speculation.
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