Wall Street Expects Amazon Shares to Surge Up to 50% in 2026
The average price target stands near $295, implying roughly 27% upside from current levels. Still, not all forecasts are equally aggressive.
Quick overview
- Approximately 96% of Wall Street analysts rate Amazon stock as a Strong Buy or Buy, despite its underperformance in 2025.
- Amazon shares rose only 6% in 2025, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's 18% gain, making it the weakest performer among the Magnificent Seven.
- Analysts remain optimistic about Amazon's potential for growth in 2026, citing factors like a possible reacceleration at AWS and rising demand for AI products.
- The average price target for Amazon stock is around $295, indicating a potential 27% upside, although some retail investors are skeptical about near-term performance.
Of the 67 Wall Street analysts covering Amazon, roughly 96% rate the stock as either Strong Buy or Buy.
Amazon shares delivered a muted performance in 2025, rising just about 6% for the year—well below the S&P 500’s 18% gain—making it the weakest performer among the so-called Magnificent Seven. Despite this underperformance, Wall Street remains confident in the company’s upside potential heading into 2026.
Investor sentiment over the past year has been mixed, shaped by slower growth at Amazon Web Services (AWS) and lingering questions around the monetization of the company’s artificial intelligence initiatives. In addition, workforce reductions—including more than 14,000 corporate layoffs—have added to market caution.
Why Wall Street Remains Bullish
Even against this more subdued backdrop, analysts continue to favor Amazon for 2026. Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI argues that the stock could rally as much as 50% from current levels, citing several catalysts that could reignite growth.
Among them are a potential reacceleration at AWS, rising demand for Amazon’s Trainium AI chips, sustained strong growth in advertising revenue, and an expanded consumer ecosystem through new offerings such as Alexa+. Mahaney also highlights Amazon’s long-standing track record of high-quality execution, with compound annual earnings-per-share growth of roughly 25% and steadily expanding operating margins.
Looking ahead, he expects free cash flow to improve meaningfully over the next 24 months, giving the company greater financial flexibility to pursue strategic investments.
Consensus Targets and Diverging Views
The broader analyst consensus remains constructive. The average price target stands near $295, implying roughly 27% upside from current levels. Still, not all forecasts are equally aggressive. J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth takes a more measured stance, projecting around 30% upside, while noting that large strategic deals—such as a reported $38 billion cloud services agreement with OpenAI—could further support AWS revenues and long-term growth.
By contrast, data from predictive markets such as Polymarket suggest that many retail investors remain skeptical in the near term, expecting Amazon shares to trade largely sideways during the early months of 2026.
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