Zero Upside Expected for Tesla Stock ahead of Quarterly Earnings
Tesla stock is holding steady today but investors could be in for a rude awakening when the company releases Q4 earnings.
Quick overview
- Morgan Stanley analysts predict Tesla stock may remain around $258 per share after the Q4 earnings report.
- The stock has fallen recently due to declining EV sales and poor analyst expectations, far from its 52-week high of $498.
- Tesla's Q4 2025 vehicle delivery expectations are set at 420,000 units, significantly lower than previous quarters.
- The company is shifting focus to robotics and AI, but must avoid overspending to ensure profitability in these new markets.
Tesla (TSLA) stock may not move beyond its current value once the fourth quarter earnings are released, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
Now priced at $258 per share, Tesla stock might be locked in around that price even after its Q4 results come in. The stock fell on Monday and is continuing to look bearish as the wider market remains close to record highs.
Tesla’s stock price is far from its 52-week high of $498 due to declining EV sales, poor analyst expectations, and cooling demand for Tesla products. The company will post its fourth quarter results on January 28th, so it still has time to turn things around.
Tesla Gets in Front of Bad News
In a very unusual move for the company, Tesla posted sales expectations for Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries. The number they gave was 420,000 units, which is about 25% less than they delivered in the previous quarter. However, Q3’s deliveries were at a record high of 497,000.
That marks a 7% increase year over year, and the surge in sales was attributed mostly to customers hurrying to take advantage of the U.S. federal government’s electric vehicle tax credit. Because of that unique circumstance, it is doubtful that Tesla will be able to match that level of sales for the current quarter.
Tesla is preparing to launch new models for 2026, and until that rollout happens, their sales may continue to decline. They are also seeing slacking demand in China and in a number of European markets as electric vehicles are falling out of favor.
The company is also shifting its focus to robotics, AI, and a robotaxi service. With less attention on electric vehicles and more on artificial intelligence, Tesla may be stepping out of a waning market and stepping into a rising one. Numerous analysts believe that 2026 will be an even better year for robotics and AI than 2025 was, but Tesla has to be careful not fall into the same trap that many other companies have of overspending and not getting a decent return on their investment in the AI market.
Until Tesla can prove that there is money to be made in these markets for them, though, they may have to experience a rapid decline in their stock price. With several analysts saying that Tesla stock is overvalued right now, that sharp decline could take place as soon as the next quarterly report.
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