Despite Milei, Argentine Assets End 2025 in Negative Territory
Markets appear to be reassessing the pace and depth of the reform agenda, while acknowledging that significant political risks remain.
Quick overview
- Argentine stocks listed on Wall Street experienced widespread losses, with no clear local catalysts influencing price movements.
- Despite a ruling party victory under President Javier Milei, markets are reassessing the reform agenda amid significant political risks.
- Structural constraints, particularly limited foreign capital inflow, continue to hinder long-term growth prospects for Argentine assets.
- Argentina's benchmark S&P Merval index fell 1.6% in pesos, while the country-risk premium remained stable at around 571 basis points.
Argentine stocks listed on Wall Street traded broadly lower, with no clear local catalysts to guide price action.
Despite the ruling party’s victory in the midterm elections under President Javier Milei, Argentine assets signaled that expectations had been set extremely high. Markets appear to be reassessing the pace and depth of the reform agenda, while acknowledging that significant political risks remain.
In addition, structural constraints continue to weigh on the outlook, particularly the limited inflow of foreign capital, which has so far failed to materialize at scale and remains a key obstacle to sustaining long-term growth and asset revaluation.
Argentine Asset Performance
With domestic markets closed due to a banking holiday, Argentine equities trading in the U.S. via ADRs posted widespread losses, with only a handful of exceptions. The weakest performers included IRSA (-1.62%), followed by Cresud (-1.62%), Grupo Supervielle (-1.34%), and Grupo Financiero Galicia (-0.93%).
Argentine companies that trade directly on Wall Street also moved lower. MercadoLibre slipped 0.30%, while Bioceres fell 1.15%.
On the upside, only a few ADRs managed to post gains in the final sessions of the year. YPF rose 0.17%, Transportadora de Gas del Sur added 0.16%, Central Puerto climbed 0.63%, and Telecom Argentina advanced 1.26%.
Merval, Bonds, and Country Risk
On Tuesday, Argentina’s benchmark S&P Merval fell 1.6% in pesos to 3,051,616.77 points, while its dollar-denominated version declined 1% to 2,007.60 points. Over the full year, the index gained 20.4% in local currency, but fell 6% in dollar terms, as the CCL exchange rate rose more sharply.
In fixed income, dollar-denominated sovereign bonds closed mixed. Losses were led by Bonar AL29 (-0.9%) and Global GD29 (-0.6%), while gains were posted by Global GD38 (+0.9%) and Bonar AL30 (+0.6%).
The latest available reading for Argentina’s country-risk premium stood at around 571 basis points, unchanged from Monday. Compared with the end of 2024, the indicator has fallen by 64 points, although it is worth noting that it peaked at 1,456 points in September, amid concerns over exchange-rate sustainability and the ruling coalition’s electoral prospects.
Overall, Argentine assets are set to close 2025 in negative territory, reflecting a year marked by volatility, currency pressures, and shifting investor sentiment.
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