XRP Struggles at $1.80 Despite $1 Billion ETF Inflows: Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside Risk in 2026
XRP is trading around $1.80, which is a small increase of 1.9% in the last 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency is facing more and more
Quick overview
- XRP is currently trading at $1.80, reflecting a slight increase of 1.9% in the last 24 hours, but it faces significant technical challenges.
- Despite strong institutional support, including the launch of the Franklin XRP Trust, XRP has dropped over 40% from its all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025.
- The number of daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger has plummeted by 94%, indicating weak demand and low real network adoption.
- Analysts are divided on XRP's future, with some predicting further declines due to negative technical indicators, while others remain optimistic about potential rebounds.
XRP XRP/USD is trading around $1.80, which is a small increase of 1.9% in the last 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency is facing more and more technical problems, even if it has never had this much institutional support through spot ETF products. As 2026 begins, the token is at a turning point. Some analysts think it can recover from its stunning 50% drop from the highs of 2025, while others think it will only get worse.
Institutional Confidence Fails to Translate into XRP Price Momentum
The strange situation of XRP’s present market position is clear: institutional money is pouring into newly created spot ETFs, yet retail traders are no longer interested. Franklin Templeton, which manages more than $1.6 trillion in assets, has become a key institutional supporter. In November, it launched the Franklin XRP Trust (XRPZ) on NYSE Arca. The fund has already collected more than 100 million XRP tokens, which adds to the ETF ecosystem’s astounding total of $1.16 billion in inflows over 24 days of positive flows.
Roger Bayston, Head of Digital Assets at Franklin Templeton, said that the XRP Ledger’s ability to settle transactions in real time and at minimal cost, as well as its ability to handle cross-border payments quickly, were major reasons why the company decided to enter the market. But even while this institutional support has been strong, XRP has nevertheless dropped more than 40% from its all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025.
The difference between ETF inflows and price performance implies that institutional purchases are being canceled out by ongoing selling pressure in other parts of the market. This could be because long-term investors are taking profits or traders are losing faith in XRP’s short-term prospects.
XRP’s Network Activity Collapse Signals Weakening Demand
XRP’s network stats tell a scary story, nevertheless. The number of daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger has dropped 94% from its peak of over 600,000 in March 2025 to barely 38,500 as of December 18. This huge drop in unique users shows that even while the SEC settlement in May made things clearer for regulators and US-based ETFs started trading, real network adoption and use are still very low.
When you look at how XRP reacted to historically positive events in 2025, it’s even clearer that there isn’t enough buying pressure. The token shot up 30% in March when it was named a candidate for the United States’ “Digital Asset Reserve.” But it fell back down when an executive order said that the stockpile could only include confiscated assets and not fresh purchases. The SEC case settlement on May 8 also pushed XRP to a seven-year high on July 18, but the euphoria faded within two weeks, and prices dropped 25% to $2.73.
XRP/USD Technical Levels Breakdown: $1.38-$1.61 Support Zone
From a technical point of view, XRP has broken through a number of important support levels that used to hold the cycle together. The token has lost both the psychological $2.00 level and the 50-week exponential moving average at $1.87, which have been accurate indicators of cyclical peaks in the past.
The current trading range of $1.80 (the low on November 21) to the 100-week EMA at $1.85 is a very important area. If this support cluster breaks down, it would probably cause a lot of long liquidations, and the next important support level is at $1.61. If the negative trend continues, the 200-day EMA at $1.38 could be a place where bulls gather to try to make a comeback.
Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, has found a “potential double top” pattern on weekly charts. He warns that XRP might drop below $1.00 in the next few weeks or months if this bearish pattern continues. This is similar to what has happened in the past: XRP lost more than 90% of its value in the year after it reached its all-time high in 2018. This shows that the cryptocurrency is vulnerable to long bear cycles.
XRP Price Predictions: $1 or $10 in 2026?
There is still a lot of disagreement among analysts on where XRP is headed. Bears say that the $5 price target that the “XRP Army” supports is still a long way off because of bad technicals, falling network activity, and patterns from the past. The combination of failed breakouts, fewer users, and negative momentum indicators backs up predictions of more losses, which might lead to levels not seen since early 2024.
On the other hand, bulls like analyst Chad Steingraber are still hopeful that the market would rebound from $2 to $10 over the course of 2026. They point to steady ETF inflows and better technical setups on longer timeframes as reasons for their optimism. They say that the Trump administration’s sustained support for regulation, along with Ripple’s growing network of payment partners, could eventually spark new interest.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save