Quick overview

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China’s new export-licensing system went into effect on January 1st, placing government gatekeepers between the country and the rest of the world for 121 million ounces of silver exports annually.

This implies that 60–70% of the refined supply traded internationally will require Beijing’s approval to exit the country. The increase in margin on silver dealers caused Wall Street to panic. The typical suspects warning about “speculative excess” were trotted out by CNBC. Six months ago, there were a lot of people on the X platform who couldn’t even spell backwardation when they suddenly explained why silver was overpriced.

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, responded to a post about the impending restrictions on his social media platform X by criticizing the action.

However, the regulations are not brand-new. The new steps to improve oversight of rare metals were first announced by China’s Commerce Ministry in October, the same day that Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump met in South Korea. At the time, the US lowered tariffs while Beijing consented to a one-year suspension of some rare earth export restrictions.

A list of 44 businesses authorized to export silver under the new regulations in 2026 and 2027 was made by China earlier this month.

The new regulations in 2026 also limit exports of tungsten and antimony, two materials heavily utilized in advanced technologies and defense, which are currently dominated by China’s supply chain. The state-run Securities Times on Tuesday quoted an unidentified industry insider who stated that the new policy formally elevates the metal, even though China hasn’t declared a complete ban on silver exports.

The US added silver to its nationally recognized list of essential minerals, citing its application in solar cells, batteries, electrical circuits, and antimicrobial medical devices.

According to a different US analysis, China had one of the biggest silver reserves and was one of the world’s top producers in 2024. According to Wind Information, which cited official data, China exported over 4,600 tons of silver in the first 11 months of the year, far more than the approximately 220 tons that were imported during that time.