TD Cowen Flags 5-Year Delay Risk for U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill
TD Cowen has some bad news for the US crypto market: Washington's politics could delay the market structure bill for a long time...
Quick overview
- TD Cowen warns that political dynamics in Washington could delay the US crypto market structure bill until 2027, with enforcement potentially pushed to 2029.
- The delay is attributed to shifting political priorities rather than the complexity of the bill itself, as lawmakers are working to refine its language.
- The upcoming 2026 midterm elections are influencing Democrats to hold off on pushing the bill, hoping for a more favorable position post-elections.
- A contentious provision in the bill aimed at preventing government officials from having crypto business interests is causing significant delays, with discussions of a potential three-year enforcement delay.
TD Cowen has some bad news for the US crypto market: Washington’s politics could delay the market structure bill for a long time, possibly pushing its passage to 2027 and enforcement to 2029. According to the research team at TD Cowen, legislative progress is still technically on the table for this year – but the chances of getting the bill passed anytime soon are slowly slipping away.
TD Cowen’s analysts point out that the delay isnt down to the bill itself being complicated – lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have been working hard to tidy up the language and iron out any procedural wrinkles. No, the real reason things are lagging is shifting political priorities and, particularly, who’s in charge in Congress.
Crunch Time: The 2026 Midterm Elections Loom
TD Cowen’s Managing Director Jaret Seiberg reckons the 2026 midterms will be a real turning point – Democrats might think it’s not worth rushing to get the bill over the line if they think that winning back the House will give them even more clout in the negotiations.
Crypto market structure bill could be delayed to 2027
TD Cowen said U.S. crypto market structure legislation could be delayed to 2027, with final rules potentially taking effect in 2029 if political hurdles are not resolved this year. pic.twitter.com/LSVIqFy4H7— GainzAlgo (@gainzalgo) January 5, 2026
But on the other hand, Seiberg notes that keeping things ambiguous for so long creates its own set of problems – especially for firms and investors trying to navigate the crypto markets under all these different, fragmented rules. At some point, that uncertainty might force people to start compromising.
Why are things being held up? Well:
- Nobody knows what’s going to happen in the 2026 House elections
- Democrats are playing a waiting game in the hopes of getting a better hand later on
- No-one wants to push any contentious bits of the bill through before the next elections
The Conflict of Interest Row
The part of the bill that’s really causing the headaches is the provision that bars top government officials from having any crypto-related business interests. This bit, which is basically aimed at Donald Trump and his family (who’ve made a big splash in the crypto world recently), is really unpopular. To get past this impasse, some lawmakers are talking about a three-year delay – so enforcement wouldn’t kick in until after the next presidential term. TD Cowen thinks that could get things moving – but only if the bill as a whole gets the same treatment.
Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act – a key bit of the whole framework – is getting some serious attention. There’s even a bipartisan meeting planned before the next break – so that’s a hint that things are still moving, albeit very cautiously.
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