Asia Morning Brief: Bitcoin Holds Above $90K as Fresh Capital Returns
Either crypto catches up and corrects higher to match those assets, or it rolls over respecting the four-year cycle.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin remains steady above $90,000 as the market recalibrates, with Ether outperforming BTC in recent weeks.
- Analysts warn of a potential battle between crypto and traditional assets, with Bitcoin needing to catch up to record highs in stocks and gold.
- Ethereum's futures data indicates a cooling off in institutional positioning, despite recent outperformance over Bitcoin.
- US spot ETFs have returned to net inflows, which could stabilize prices, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain.
Bitcoin’s holding steady above $90,000 as 2026 kicks off, with markets in recalibration mode rather than full retreat. Ether’s also showing strength, outperforming BTC on weekly and monthly timeframes as institutional positioning resets.
George Mandres from XBTO sees a battle brewing. Stocks, gold and precious metals all sit at record highs. Either crypto catches up and corrects higher to match those assets, or it rolls over respecting the four-year cycle. “The latter can very quickly turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Mandres warned.
What changed since a few weeks ago? PNLs reset to zero with the new year. Investors need to allocate capital to attractive opportunities, and Bitcoin above $90K looks different from Bitcoin at $85K psychologically.
Ethereum’s telling a different story underneath the surface. ETH outperformed Bitcoin recently, but futures data shows positioning cooling off. Bradley Park from DNTV Research points to CME ethereum futures open interest as the tell. Rising open interest reflected institutional participation through ETF arbitrage trades. Falling open interest means an unwind.
That unwind looks pretty far along now. Park says the recent pullback “looks less like a structural break and more like a loss of momentum, with positioning resetting to roughly July 2025 levels.” The key detail? That reset didn’t trigger a sharp spot selloff. No panic, just rotation.
Glassnode’s recent report backs this up. Options markets de-risked hard, with open interest contracting and volatility expectations climbing. But US spot ETF flows flipped back to net inflows, signaling fresh institutional demand. The catch is increased sensitivity to profit-taking.
Put it all together and you get consolidation plus rotation, not a broad risk-off move. Traders are shuffling allocations rather than running for exits.
US spot ETFs returning to inflows matters. Timothy Misir from BRN notes Bitcoin closed 2025 consolidating just below $92K resistance while institutional flows turned decisively positive for the first time in weeks. Spot ETF inflows came back across Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, helping stabilize prices during thin holiday trading.
Whether those inflows stick around is the question. Bitfinex analysts told CoinDesk that upcoming ETF flow prints will be critical. Either this recovery attracts fresh institutional capital or caution keeps dominating positioning.
Gold rallied nearly 65% in 2025. Banks expect new records in 2026 on falling rates, central bank buying and geopolitical risk. That backdrop helps Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative, especially with the Venezuela situation adding uncertainty.
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