Quick overview

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Copper continued a strong rally after breaking through $13,000 per ton for the first time as investors wagered on a tighter market. after capping the biggest annual gain since 2009 on prospects for a tighter market.

Three-month futures reached a record $13,387 per ton on Tuesday, up 3.1 percent from Monday’s peak. Holdings have moved to the US due to worries that the Trump administration might impose a tariff on refined metal, which could leave the rest of the world short. In the past, inventories served as a buffer, but they are currently locked in the United States.

Base metals have had a very successful start to 2026 with the LMEX Index, which tracks the six major metals, including copper, rising to its highest level since the sector’s peak in March 2022.

This year, supply chain issues have dominated the metals industry, with accidents occurring in copper mines across Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Zinc mines have also been disrupted, and increased energy costs and supply constraints in China pose a threat to aluminum production. The threat of US import tariffs remains the primary motivator for copper. The Mercuria Energy Group, Ltd. predicted in November that the rest of the world would experience a severe metal shortage in 2026.

According to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd., copper is expected “to be led by sentiment from investors over US copper-specific tariffs, with focus on regional levels of global stocks and material entering the US, rather than underlying global fundamentals” in the upcoming months.