Gold Price News: XAU/USD Stabilizes Above $5,000 Ahead of High-Stakes US Jobs Report
Gold (XAU/USD) is steady in early Wednesday trading, staying between $5,040 and $5,070 per ounce. After reaching record highs near $5,610...
Quick overview
- Gold (XAU/USD) is trading steadily between $5,040 and $5,070 per ounce, recovering from record highs near $5,610 in January.
- Today's unusual Non-Farm Payrolls report will release both January hiring data and annual benchmark revisions due to a federal government shutdown.
- Gold prices are supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot, ongoing central bank buying, and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Technical analysis indicates key levels for gold, with potential bullish momentum if prices break above $5,092, while a strong jobs report could lead to a drop below $4,946.
Gold (XAU/USD) is steady in early Wednesday trading, staying between $5,040 and $5,070 per ounce. After reaching record highs near $5,610 in January, gold is still recovering. Now, attention is on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which has become the main event this month after recent government delays.
The Macro Setup: A “Two-for-One” Jobs Report
Today’s 8:30 a.m. ET release is unusual. Because a partial federal government shutdown delayed the original schedule, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release both the January hiring data and the annual benchmark revisions for 2025 simultaneously.
Current market consensus for the key metrics includes:
- Non-Farm Employment Change: Expected +70K (Up from 50K in December)
- Unemployment Rate: Forecast to hold steady at 4.4%
- Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Projected at 0.3%
The benchmark revisions are the real wild card. Early estimates suggest the 2025 data could be revised down by 600,000 to 1,000,000 jobs, which might show the US labor market was weaker last year than first thought.
Why Gold is Defending the $5,000 Level
Even with a volatile start to 2026, gold is up almost 10% in the past month and an impressive 73% over the past year. Several key factors are supporting this new period of $5,000-plus prices:
- Fed Pivot Bets: Weaker economic data, like flat retail sales, has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more supportive. A jobs report today that is weak enough to encourage rate cuts, but not so weak that it signals a recession, would be the best outcome for gold buyers.
- Central Bank Appetite: Structural buying continues, led by China’s relentless accumulation streak. Analysts from UBS and JP Morgan maintain year-end targets between $5,900 and $6,300, citing de-dollarization as a primary driver.
- Geopolitical Safe Haven: High-level diplomatic meetings are happening today, including one between Israeli PM Netanyahu and US President Trump. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support gold prices.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Key Levels to Watch
On the 1-hour chart, gold is consolidating in a neutral to bullish pattern. The price is currently between support at $4,946 and resistance at $5,092.
- The Bull Case: A sustained break above $5,092 would likely trigger a momentum-driven rally toward $5,183 and potentially $5,306.
- The Bear Case: If the jobs data comes in surprisingly hot, gold could lose the $4,946 support level, exposing the ascending trendline at $4,811.
Pro Tip: Momentum has bounced back from oversold levels. The 50-hour and 100-hour moving averages are coming together near $4,980, which suggests buyers are defending this key price level.
Looking Ahead
While today’s NFP report is the main focus now, more volatility is likely. US CPI (inflation) data comes out this Friday and will help shape the Fed’s next interest rate decision.
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