Silver Price Vibe Check: Is the $83 Support a Hard No? Bearish Energy Grows as US Jobs Data Jolts Markets
Silver (XAG/USD) is facing new selling pressure today, moving between $82.50 and $84.00 per ounce.
Quick overview
- Silver (XAG/USD) is currently trading between $82.50 and $84.00 per ounce, facing selling pressure after reaching record highs near $121 in January.
- Stronger US labor data and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair have strengthened the US dollar, reducing demand for silver.
- Immediate resistance levels for silver are at $84.00 and $86.50, while critical support is found at $80.00 and $76.49.
- Despite short-term volatility, long-term fundamentals for silver remain bullish, with analysts targeting prices above $100 due to strong demand in AI and green technology.
Silver (XAG/USD) is facing new selling pressure today, moving between $82.50 and $84.00 per ounce. Earlier this year, prices hit record highs near $121 in January, but now the market appears to be consolidating.
Stronger US labor data has led investors to expect a more cautious Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the US dollar and reduced demand for silver.
Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Rejection and Key Support Zones
On the 4-hour chart, silver is showing a defensive pattern. It could not move above a downward trendline from late January and was turned back near $86.46. This price, which matches the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is now a strong resistance area.
- Current Spot Price: ~$82.98 – $83.50 (Down ~1.5%)
- Immediate Resistance: Immediate resistance levels are at $84.00 and $86.50. If silver rises above $86.50, it could move toward the $92 level.
- Critical Support: $80.00 and $76.49. Market analysts warn that a 4-hour close below $76.49 could trigger a deeper breakdown toward the $70.00 support floor.
Macro Headwinds: The “Warsh Shock” and Resilient Labor Data
Today’s price drop is mainly due to changes in US monetary policy. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has made investors expect higher interest rates.
- US Jobs Resilience: Stronger-than-expected labor data released this week has slashed bets for aggressive rate cuts in March.
- Dollar Strength: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has surged, making dollar-denominated silver more expensive for global buyers.
- Inflation Watch: Traders are now bracing for tomorrow’s US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report. A “hot” inflation print could further cement the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance, adding more weight to silver’s downward trajectory.
The Silver Lining: 2026 Fundamentals Remain Bullish
Although silver prices are volatile in the short term, the long-term outlook is still strong. The Silver Institute’s February 2026 report says this year will be the sixth year in a row with a market deficit, estimated at about 67 million ounces.
Why Analysts Still Target $100+
- AI and Green Tech: Silver’s excellent conductivity makes it important for AI data centers and the automotive industry. This demand helps balance a small drop in silver use for solar panels, as manufacturers use less silver per panel.
- More than 70% of silver comes as a by-product from mining lead, zinc, and copper. This means that silver supply cannot increase quickly, even if prices rise sharply.
- Vault Drawdowns: Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are close to 10-year lows at about 342 tonnes, showing that there is little physical silver available for delivery.
Market Insight: One global researcher says, “The rapid stabilization around $80 indicates that silver has completed its backtest from the January speculative frenzy. While the ‘paper’ market is under pressure from Fed hawks, the physical market remains historically tight.”
Verdict: Accumulation or Breakdown?
Traders are facing a period of waiting, as the market is moving between resistance at $86 and support at $76.50. A move above or below these levels will likely set the trend for the rest of the first quarter of 2026.
Bank of America recently kept its long-term forecast for silver at $135 to $309, based on the gold-to-silver ratio narrowing. This suggests that large institutions may still see current price drops as long-term buying opportunities.
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