EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Flops Despite 1.4% GDP Win – Is the Greenback Simply Built Different?
The EUR/USD pair continues to decline, staying below the $1.1860 level. Despite strong Eurozone data, global markets...
Quick overview
- The EUR/USD pair is declining, remaining below the $1.1860 level despite positive Eurozone economic data.
- Investors are favoring the US Dollar for safety amid a risk-off market sentiment, even with mixed US economic indicators.
- Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US CPI data, which could significantly impact the EUR/USD exchange rate.
- The EUR/USD is currently testing support around $1.1840, with potential bullish and bearish scenarios outlined for future movements.
The EUR/USD pair continues to decline, staying below the $1.1860 level. Despite strong Eurozone data, global markets are in a risk-off mood, leading investors to seek safety in the US Dollar.
Eurozone Data Shows Strength, But Investors Remain Unconvinced
The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in Q4, bringing annual growth to 1.4%, which beat the 1.3% forecast. Employment also rose by 0.2%. Still, most investors are ignoring this and waiting for the next US inflation report.
The US Dollar: Showing Continued Strength
Despite mixed economic data, the US Dollar remains steady. Initial Jobless Claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, though this is still above the 222,000 analysts expected. Existing Home Sales also dropped by 8.4% in January. Even so, investors are sticking with the Dollar for safety.
All Eyes on the CPI Glow-Up
Traders are closely watching for the US CPI data. Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.5% from 2.7%. If the numbers are higher than expected, EUR/USD could drop to $1.1785.
EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls Clinging to $1.1840 Support Like a Life Raft
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is vibing near $1.1860, holding onto a rising trendline that’s been the MVP since mid-January. After failing to stay above $1.1929, the pair is easing, but buyers are gatekeeping the $1.1840–$1.1860 zone.
The 50-EMA at $1.1836 is acting as immediate backup, and the 200-EMA near $1.1792 is still sloping up, keeping the bullish dream alive. The candles are getting smaller, which means the market is basically in a “wait and see” mode before the CPI drop.
- Bullish Scenario: If EUR/USD rises above $1.1929, it could move toward $1.1995 and possibly $1.2054.
- Bearish Scenario: If EUR/USD falls below $1.1840, it could drop to $1.1767 or even $1.1728.
Trade Idea: Consider buying if EUR/USD bounces above $1.1905, with a target of $1.1980 and a stop loss below $1.1850.
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