USD/CHF Prediction: 130K NFP Boost vs 0.32% Swiss Yields Before CPI
USD/CHF is trading steadily near 0.7710 during the European session on Friday, February 13, 2026. The US Dollar is supported...
Quick overview
- USD/CHF is trading near 0.7710, supported by a strong US labor market but limited by a strengthening Swiss Franc.
- Swiss 10-year government bond yields have reached a multi-month high of 0.32%, attracting investors to the Franc.
- The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain a neutral policy rate of 0% throughout 2026, while the Fed shows a hawkish stance.
- Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for USD/CHF, with key resistance at 0.7731 and support at 0.7652.
USD/CHF is trading steadily near 0.7710 during the European session on Friday, February 13, 2026. The US Dollar is supported by a strong labor market, but gains are limited as the Swiss Franc strengthens due to higher domestic yields and its ongoing safe-haven appeal.
Swiss Franc Strength: Yields Hit Multi-Month Highs
Even though the US Dollar is strong, the Swiss Franc is gaining as investors move into Swiss government bonds.
- The yield on Swiss 10-year government bonds climbed to 0.32% this week, the highest since December 2025.
- Concerns about the AI sector and changes in global Treasury holdings are pushing more investors toward the Swiss Franc.
- Traders are watching Switzerland’s January CPI data, released today. Annual inflation is expected to stay low at 0.1%, matching the Swiss National Bank’s target range of 0 to 2%.
SNB vs. Fed: The Policy Stance
The main factor behind USD/CHF volatility is the difference in monetary policy between the SNB and the Fed.
- SNB Neutrality: The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 0% for all of 2026. Chairman Martin Schlegel has said that moving to negative rates would be a last resort, and the bank would rather use currency interventions to control the Franc if needed.
- Fed Hawkishness: After the strong 130,000 NFP report this week, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 94% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. This yield advantage still gives the US Dollar an edge over the Franc.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Structure Persists Below 0.7731
On the 4-hour chart, USD/CHF is trying to bounce, but the overall technical outlook is still bearish. The pair remains in a downward channel that has been in place since the 0.8000 peak. A key downward trendline is stopping rallies near 0.7731. Unless the pair closes above this level on the 4-hour chart, traders are likely to keep selling into rallies.
The price is having trouble moving back above the 50-period moving average at 0.7759 and is still well below the 200-period moving average at 0.7822, which shows that bearish momentum is strong.
The first support level is at 0.7652. If the US Dollar weakens after today’s inflation data, the pair could retest the January low at 0.7603. A possible trade is to go short if the price falls below 0.7690, aiming for the 0.7650 support area, and setting a stop-loss above 0.7735.
Summary: Market Catalysts for Friday
| Factor | Expected Impact | Analysis |
| US CPI (Jan) | High | A hot print (>2.7% YoY) could propel USD/CHF toward 0.7800. |
| Swiss CPI (Jan) | Medium | Muted inflation (0.1%) keeps the SNB on hold, weighing on CHF. |
| Swiss 10Y Yields | Medium | A move above 0.35% would likely trigger a CHF-led drop in the pair. |
Looking ahead, traders should expect more volatility at 13:30 GMT when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases updated seasonal factors and January CPI. If the price breaks above 0.7731, the bearish outlook would change. If it falls below 0.7690, the pair could move back toward the 2026 lows.
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