Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $85K Recovery, XRP Flashes Rare On-Chain Signal Amid Broad Market Turbulence
Smart money is slashing bearish Bitcoin bets at a level that has historically preceded major rallies, while XRP's realized losses just hit
Quick overview
- Smart money is reducing bearish Bitcoin bets, a trend that historically precedes major price rallies.
- XRP has seen a significant spike in realized losses, which previously indicated a potential 114% gain following similar conditions.
- Bitcoin miners are liquidating their treasuries, with one company selling its entire BTC holdings, raising concerns about financial stability.
- Despite current market challenges, investors are diversifying their portfolios and viewing the slump as a buying opportunity.
Smart money is slashing bearish Bitcoin BTC/USD bets at a level that has historically preceded major rallies, while XRP’s XRP/USD realized losses just hit their largest spike since 2022, a signal that once preceded a 114% gain. Meanwhile, a Bitcoin miner liquidated its entire BTC treasury and regulators handed broker-dealers a win on stablecoins.
Crypto Market Developments
Although the overall cryptocurrency market is going through a rough patch, a number of indicators point to a possible turning point. In a significant regulatory approval that harmonizes stablecoin treatment with money market fund instruments, the SEC clarified this week that broker-dealers can apply a 2% “haircut” to their stablecoin holdings without triggering excess net capital requirements. In her support of the decision, Commissioner Hester Peirce pointed out that a complete haircut would have been “unnecessarily punitive.”
Regarding investor attitude, Johann Kerbrat, head of crypto at Robinhood, told Cointelegraph that investors are diversifying beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum ETH/USD and are seeing the present slump as a buying opportunity. “We actually see a lot of customers continuing to trade crypto and diversifying, not just on the top two or three assets, but actually going pretty wide,” Kerbrat stated. Bitcoin continues to dominate, with a Bitcoin Season score of 33 out of 100 according to the Altcoin Season Index, but there is a growing desire for research.
Can Bitcoin Rebound to $85,000 by April?
There is a noticeable change occurring in the Bitcoin futures market. Hedge funds and other major non-commercial speculators have switched from net short to net long positions on CME Bitcoin futures, reducing their net position from about +1,000 contracts to approximately -1,600 during the previous month, according to the most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report. The swift unwind, according to analyst Tom McClellan, added longs “with some urgency,” noting that such positioning changes preceded a 2025 gain of 70% BTC and a 2023 spike of 190%. Additionally, Bitcoin is defending its 200-week exponential moving average, which has historically been a bear market floor, around $68,350. Analysts predict a possible move toward the 100-week EMA by April at about $85,000 if bulls maintain this line.
Nevertheless, there is genuine danger in the image. McClellan warns that the change is “a condition, not a signal” and that a sturdy bottom hasn’t developed yet. Prices may approach $40,000 if 2022 is repeated, when Bitcoin dropped more than 40% despite breaching below the 200-week EMA in oversold conditions. The Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer completely liquidated its entire BTC treasury this week, selling 189.8 BTC in newly produced coins together with an extra 943.1 BTC from reserves, bringing its holdings to zero and adding to the market commotion. A complete liquidation of reserves is rare and could be a sign of internal financial problems, even though miners frequently sell a portion of their output to pay operational expenses.
XRP On-chain Metrics Suggest Rally After Capitulation
XRP (XRP) is attracting notice for a unique on-chain development: Santiment data shows that realized losses increased to almost $2 billion in a single week, the biggest increase since 2022. The extent to which investors sell below their acquisition price—a well-known indication of weaker holding’ capitulation—is measured by realized losses. The relevance comes from what happened after this indicator last reached similar levels: XRP gained 114% over the next eight months. Incoming demand, general market circumstances, and ongoing buying pressure will determine whether history repeats itself, but traders are taking notice of the signal now that it has returned.
At the time of these reports, XRP was trading close to $1.45, up around 1.5% in a day but down about 24% for the month. Even though the recent increase is consistent with a wider market rebound, a trend reversal cannot be confirmed by short-term strength alone. While more optimistic — and frequently contested — social media projections have called for XRP to reach $13 to $70 within months, targets that would require extraordinary capital inflows far beyond what current market conditions suggest, some analysts have estimated a potential macro floor between $0.75 and $0.85 based on previous cycle lows.
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