Morgan Stanley Flags Gold-Like Asset With Potential 17% Upside

Quick overview

According to Morgan Stanley, there is a currency that combines macroeconomic stability, fiscal strength, and low inflation with liquidity and financial performance — positioning it as one of the most compelling safe-haven assets for the years ahead.

A team of strategists at Morgan Stanley has identified the Swiss franc as one of the most promising refuge assets for 2026, projecting a potential appreciation of up to 17% against the U.S. dollar amid rising geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and growing uncertainty around U.S. financial leadership.

The franc stands out for its unique combination of macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline, low inflation, deep liquidity, and financial credibility — attributes that make it a high-quality safe haven. In its report, the bank described the Swiss currency as “the closest safe-haven asset to gold,” a characterization that captures its historical role during periods of financial stress.

What Morgan Stanley Expects for the Swiss Franc

This thesis is already reflected in market dynamics. The Swiss franc recently reached decade-high levels against the dollar, after gaining roughly 14% in 2025 and extending its upward trend into 2026. Demand has been driven by both institutional investors and speculative funds, which have increased long positions amid rising global risk.

The broader backdrop is a structural shift in perceptions of global systemic risk. Persistent geopolitical conflicts, a more protectionist global trade environment, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policy are accelerating the search for alternatives to the dollar.

In this context, the franc is emerging as a monetary safe haven complementary to gold, which is also in a structural bull cycle supported by central bank purchases and demand for volatility hedging.

A Complementary Safe-Haven Asset

Morgan Stanley’s strategists stress that the relationship between gold and the Swiss franc is not substitutional but complementary. Gold remains the primary hedge against inflation and systemic crises, while the franc provides currency protection and geopolitical insulation with greater operational liquidity.

This reinforces the case for diversifying safe-haven exposure within global portfolios, particularly in an environment where the dollar faces growing pressure from fiscal deficits and political uncertainty.

The main risk to this outlook lies in the response of the Swiss National Bank. An overly strong franc undermines exports and increases deflationary pressures, and Switzerland’s central bank has historically intervened to limit excessive appreciation.

However, Morgan Stanley’s analysis suggests that even with potential interventions, structural demand for safe-haven assets could sustain the franc’s appreciation trend, supporting its role as a strategic refuge asset in the global financial system.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

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