Quick overview

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Import costs in the United States rose 1.3% in February, marking the largest increase in nearly four years, as higher energy prices and tariffs added pressure to inflation.

U.S. import prices posted their strongest monthly gain in almost four years in February, reinforcing concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation in the world’s largest economy.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the import price index climbed 1.3% month-over-month, driven by rising oil and natural gas costs. This marked the most significant increase since 2022, as energy prices regain prominence.

Excluding petroleum, import prices also recorded a notable 1.2% increase—the largest since January 2022—supported by higher costs for capital goods and consumer goods, excluding autos.

Meanwhile, export prices also rose sharply, increasing 1.5% in February, the biggest monthly gain since May 2022, highlighting broad-based price pressures across global trade.

On a year-over-year basis, the import price index excluding petroleum rose 2.8% compared with February 2025, reaching its highest level since October 2022. This suggests that a meaningful portion of rising costs—including those linked to tariffs—is being absorbed by U.S. importers.

Inflation in the United States stood at 2.4% year-over-year in February, broadly in line with market expectations, as was core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of the Consumer Price Index. This marks the latest reading before the full impact of the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict is reflected in the data.

The impact of the Middle East conflict

The backdrop is further complicated by geopolitical tensions. The war in the Middle East—particularly the conflict involving Iran—has driven energy prices higher, adding pressure to global cost structures.

This is compounded by the trade policy of Donald Trump, whose administration continues to maintain elevated tariffs on a range of imported goods. While these do not directly appear in the official index, they do affect the final costs faced by businesses.

Additionally, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar since early last year has made imported goods more expensive, while potentially improving the competitiveness of U.S. exports if the trend persists.