Bitcoin Holds $71K: Can Bulls Force a $75K Breakout on Friday’s Options Expiry?

Quick overview

As the market prepares for one of the most significant events of the month, a huge $18.6 billion options expiration on Friday, March 28, Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading at about $71,200, essentially unchanged over the previous day. The next 48 hours could be crucial for cryptocurrency’s top asset, as bulls and bears are locked in a tense stalemate.

92% of BTC Call Options at Risk of Expiring Worthless

For Bitcoin bulls, Friday’s monthly options expiration at 8:00 AM UTC looks to be a difficult event. If Bitcoin doesn’t rise over $71,000 at settlement, an estimated 92% of the $11.2 billion in outstanding open call (buy) options will expire worthless. The issue is obvious: a large number of those optimistic wagers were made when Bitcoin was trading above $86,000 earlier this year, and the highest call concentrations were at $90,000 and above, prices that are now well out of reach.

There are now about $2.2 billion of put (sell) contracts “in the money” at strike prices of $66,000 or more. With $14.1 billion in open interest and a 76% market share, Deribit exhibits a small structural edge for bears at the current price levels.

Breaking down the probable outcomes at Deribit for Friday’s expiry:

• $65,000–$69,000: Bears gain $1.8 billion net advantage
• $69,001–$72,000: Bears retain a $950 million edge
• $72,001–$75,000: Bears hold a narrower $430 million advantage
• $75,001–$78,000: Bulls flip the script, gaining $790 million

The math is harsh: in order to swing Friday’s expiry in their favor, Bitcoin bulls must rise 6% from current levels to around $75,000.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Inverse Head and Shoulders Offers a Lifeline

Chart watchers are pointing to emerging rebound signals despite the negative options configuration. On the 4-hour chart, a tiny inverse head and shoulders pattern is emerging that, if verified, would aim for the $75,000 mark. A clear close above that would focus attention on $79,354, which would be the first higher high on the 4-hour timeframe and might indicate a reversal of the trend.

Overhead resistance is still very strong, though. In recent weeks, rallies have been routinely thwarted by the $72,000–$76,000 range, and the 200-day EMA at $86,380 is still a long way off. To avoid a larger drop toward $55,230 or possibly $47,256, crucial support levels around $65,666, $62,433, and $60,000 must hold on the downside.

Macro Crosswinds: Geopolitics, Inflation, and ETF Flows

The tight concentration of Bitcoin is not occurring in a vacuum. As developments in the US-Iran confrontation lower broader risk premiums, a slight relief rally over the previous day has been mostly attributed to a reduction in geopolitical tensions. In a single day, liquidation volumes fell 48.84% to $45 million, indicating a decrease in forced selling.

On the institutional front, spot Bitcoin ETFs have had net inflows of about $2.5 billion in the last month, offering a consistent level of demand that has prevented further declines in BTC.

However, Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which is released on the same day as the options expire, might be the strongest short-term driver. A number below 2.8% might provide bulls the much-needed fuel, while a reading above 3% could crush expectations of a rate drop and put a heavy burden on riskier assets.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: A Coin Flip With High Consequences

This is one of the busiest trading days for Bitcoin in months due to the combination of the $18.6 billion options expiration and the PCE data print on Friday. A fall below $69,000 might lead to a quick move toward $65,000, while a hold over $70,000 keeps the door open for a test of $74,500 weekly resistance.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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