Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Hovers Near $68,500, Bittensor’s TAO Faces 40% Correction Risk

Quick overview

Bitcoin BTC/USD trades near cycle lows Thursday as MARA Holdings offloads over 15,000 BTC to retire debt, while on-chain metrics suggest a historically significant accumulation zone. Meanwhile, Bittensor’s TAO has surged 160% in a month but a recurring golden-cross pattern warns of a sharp pullback ahead.

Crypto Market Developments

On Thursday, March 27, the whole cryptocurrency market remained cautious, with Bitcoin trading at about $68,500, close to its one-year low and about 43% below its all-time high of $126,080. A convergence of macro headwinds has molded the market’s risk-off stance: rising oil prices due to US-Iran tensions have obscured the Federal Reserve’s path to rate decreases and reduced demand for speculative assets.

Regarding regulations, Coinbase has reportedly expressed disapproval of the most recent iteration of the Senate’s crypto market structure bill, particularly with regard to clauses that would prohibit exchanges from paying yields on stablecoins. One of the biggest lobbyists for cryptocurrencies in Washington, the exchange already assisted in delaying the bill in January. Numerous White House-sponsored talks between the banking and cryptocurrency lobbies have not yet resulted in a practical solution.

Coinbase and Better Home & Finance announced a new mortgage structure that enables eligible borrowers to pledge digital assets, such as Bitcoin and USDC, as collateral for a separate loan that funds the down payment on a Fannie Mae-conforming mortgage. This is a significant breakthrough for the home finance industry. The primary mortgage is still a common, government-backed instrument. The arrangement has the potential to significantly increase the integration of cryptocurrency assets into conventional US home financing if it is broadly implemented.

Bitcoin Tests $68,000 as MARA Sells $1.1B in BTC

According to CryptoQuant statistics, Bitcoin’s total supply in profit was 60.6% on Thursday. This range has historically indicated cycle resets and preceding significant recoveries. On February 5, the metric momentarily fell to 50.8%, its lowest level since January 2023. In a similar scenario three years prior, this level preceded a 655% increase to $126,000. The run to $69,000 in 2021 was preceded by a similar compression in March 2020, when the indicator dropped below 50% at a BTC price of $6,500. However, analysts warn that the indicator does not pinpoint an exact price bottom, but rather an accumulation zone.

Short-term holding inflows to Binance dropped to 25,000 BTC on March 25, a new market low, substantially down from almost 100,000 BTC during the February sell-off, reinforcing the comparatively sturdy backdrop. This suggests a clear fall in reactive selling from newer market participants. Interestingly, long-term holders are still comfortably profitable even as total supply profitability approaches cycle lows, as evidenced by the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (LTH-NUPL) being close to 0.40. Together, corporate entities and spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about 15.8% of the circulating supply, or 3.3 million BTC. This structural change, according to analysts, lessens the pressure for forced sales that was present during previous bear cycles.

Bittensor Could Correct 40% After Recent 160% Rally

In just over a month, Bittensor’s TAO token has increased by over 160%, but technical analysts are cautioning because the asset is printing a well-known and historically negative signal. TAO’s 20-day exponential moving average crossed above its 200-day EMA on Thursday, creating a golden cross that traders usually interpret as positive. However, in the particular instance of TAO, this pattern has frequently emerged close to local tops. Over the course of five to six weeks, the three most recent comparable crosses each caused notable drawdowns of approximately 38.5%, 32.5%, and 45.5%, for an average fall of roughly 40%. TAO might drop from its current price of about $342 to $200 by early May if the pattern continues.

Santiment’s sentiment data provides a nuanced counterargument in spite of the technical caution. Although Bittensor’s social volume has increased to its second-highest level in six months, the real emotion is still somewhat muted, with only 1.5 positive comments for every negative one, far from the exuberant readings usually associated with local tops. Santiment pointed out that this is “generally a good sign that the rally can continue, with little interference from greedy traders.” A potential advance above $420 or higher before any significant correction occurs is suggested by historical precedence from other golden-cross setups, which likewise shows TAO averaging a further 21.3% gain before reverting. As macro headwinds, such as oil-driven inflation worries, continue to impact the larger altcoin market, traders will need to carefully consider the contradicting signals.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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