Quick overview

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The intensifying war in the Middle East continues to keep global markets on edge, although Wall Street started the week in positive territory.

U.S. stocks erased much of their early gains on Monday, March 30, and ended the session mixed as oil prices continued to climb. Investors are weighing the ongoing fighting in the Middle East, which has now entered its second month with no clear path toward a resolution.

Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 45,216.66 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.75 points, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.7% to 20,794.64 points.

No light at the end of the tunnel

Major Wall Street indexes had already fallen late last week, even after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed until April 6 the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. attacks on its electrical infrastructure.

“Markets remain extremely nervous about the situation in the Middle East, and the prevailing view is that the conflict is likely to intensify,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

The sharp surge in oil prices since the start of the conflict in late February has fueled concerns about renewed inflationary pressures worldwide, which could prompt central banks to raise interest rates. In that context, government bond yields — including U.S. Treasurys — have risen, weighing on equity markets.

Traders are no longer pricing in any interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, a sharp shift from pre-war expectations that had pointed to two rate reductions in 2026.

Key data releases later this week, including employment figures and business activity indicators, are expected to provide clearer signals about the state of the world’s largest economy.

Trump threatens Iran’s energy infrastructure

Trump suggested that direct negotiations with Iran were continuing and that a deal with Tehran could be near. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said talks were going “extremely well” and hinted that an agreement could soon be reached, while also boasting of a “regime change” in Tehran following U.S. strikes that killed several senior Iranian officials last month.

“I see a deal with Iran — it could happen soon,” he said, without providing a specific timeline.

Iran, however, firmly denied that direct talks with Washington have taken place since the start of the war and demanded a halt to hostilities before any negotiations could begin.

Later, the U.S. president wrote on his Truth Social platform that while the United States had made significant progress, if an agreement is not reached soon and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to trade, Washington could target Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island.

Employment data in focus

Energy prices remain one of the most visible economic consequences of the war. U.S. crude oil prices have surged more than 70% so far this year to above $100 per barrel, pushing average gasoline prices to around $4 per gallon.

Rising inflation fears have driven benchmark U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels since last summer, a development that could weigh on stock valuations.

Meanwhile, the March nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday tops the week’s economic calendar. Economists expect 55,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Retail sales and manufacturing and services activity data will also be released that day.

Notable stocks on Wall Street

Shares of Vale S.A. rose 0.5% after the company said in an interview with Bloomberg that it plans to expand its business in India by increasing shipments and exploring iron ore trading opportunities in the country.

Compass Diversified surged 14.9% after announcing a definitive agreement to sell the foodservice business of its majority-owned subsidiary Sterno for $292.5 million. The buyer, Archer Foodservice Partners, will acquire the business at that enterprise value, subject to customary working capital adjustments.

Shares of YY Group Holding Ltd climbed 3.8% after the company said it would pause its at-the-market share offering program and cancel more than one million unissued shares.

On the downside, Avis Budget Group Inc. fell 8.6% after announcing a new share offering program. The car rental company signed a distribution agreement with ten sales agents — including Bank of America Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities and Morgan Stanley — to sell up to five million common shares.

Meanwhile, MakeMyTrip Limited edged up 0.2% despite a short-seller report from Morpheus Research alleging anti-competitive practices and accounting issues at the Indian online travel agency. The report claims the company continues to enforce hotel price-parity clauses despite a 2022 order from India’s competition authority to halt the practice.