Quick overview

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Major global equity indexes showed a shift in investor sentiment after the latest remarks from Donald Trump.

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, April 1, starting the month on a positive note after a late rally helped Wall Street close a difficult March with a more optimistic tone. Expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East were reinforced after Trump said Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire.

In that context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 46,565.86 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.69% to 6,573.89 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.16% to 21,840.95 points.

Could the conflict be nearing a ceasefire?

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the president of Iran’s new government had requested a ceasefire from the United States.

However, he also warned that Washington would only consider such a move once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear.” Until then, he said, the U.S. military would continue its operations.

If confirmed by Iran, such a development would represent a meaningful step toward de-escalation. Still, uncertainty remains around the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows. Since the start of the conflict, shipping disruptions there have helped drive global crude prices sharply higher.

Trump also said negotiations were progressing, although Iranian officials have often downplayed such claims. Tehran has acknowledged exchanges of messages and expressed a willingness to end the war, provided it receives guarantees that it will not face further attacks.

Economic data: strong consumption and expanding manufacturing

The most relevant data release of the day came from the United States Census Bureau, which reported that retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in February to $738.4 billion. The figure exceeded market expectations of a 0.4% increase and reversed the 0.2% decline recorded in January.

The data suggest consumer spending remains resilient, although the report does not yet reflect the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management showed a slight improvement. The PMI rose to 52.7 in March, remaining in expansion territory and marking the seventeenth consecutive month of economic growth.

After the monetary tightening cycle that began in 2022, the manufacturing sector had spent several years mostly in contraction. However, it began recovering in 2026 following cumulative interest-rate cuts of 175 basis points by the Federal Reserve.

According to Matt Stucky, the most notable component of the report was the prices-paid index, which rose to 78.3 points, reflecting inflationary pressures linked to higher energy, transportation, and raw material costs.

Notable stocks of the session

• Shares of Nike Inc. plunged 15.5% despite beating revenue and earnings expectations, as investors reacted to weakness in China and margin pressure.
• Eli Lilly and Company rose 3.7% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a new oral obesity drug, orforglipron.
• Alcoa Corporation (+8.6%) and Century Aluminum (+8.2%) advanced after reports of production disruptions in the United Arab Emirates linked to attacks related to the conflict.
• Intel Corporation gained 8.8% after announcing the repurchase of a 49% stake in its Fab 34 joint venture in Ireland for $14.2 billion.