Quick overview

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Oil prices surged sharply on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising more than 11% to $111 per barrel.

Both WTI and Brent crude moved back above the $100 mark after the latest remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, which delivered mixed signals and revived concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The rally reflects a shift in market expectations. After previously pricing in a relatively quick resolution to the conflict, investors are once again factoring in the risk of prolonged disruptions to global oil supply.

Market analysts say the move in crude prices was driven less by concrete developments than by changing expectations. “Oil doesn’t trade hope — it trades risk and access,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management, noting that the market has tilted back toward a scenario of supply scarcity.

Analysts at FXEM also highlighted that the absence of a clear diplomatic path and threats targeting energy infrastructure and key maritime routes are reinforcing upward pressure on prices. Even if tensions ease, they warn, normalization of supply would likely be gradual due to logistical damage and heightened security risks.

What Trump said — and how markets reacted

In his remarks, Trump combined conciliatory signals with strong warnings. On one hand, he suggested the conflict could end soon, aiming to project an imminent resolution. At the same time, he hardened his tone by warning that the United States could act “with extreme force” if negotiations with Iran fail.

“We’re going to finish the job — and we’re going to do it very quickly,” Trump said, while also leaving open the possibility of intensifying military operations in the short term. He hinted that within weeks the campaign could significantly degrade Iran’s capabilities.

Trump also said that diplomatic channels remain open, though their future depends on the outcome of ongoing talks. If negotiations fail, he warned of coordinated strikes targeting key infrastructure, including energy facilities.

The U.S. president also linked the surge in oil prices to what he described as “attacks by the Iranian regime” on commercial vessels and regional partners, directly blaming Tehran for rising tensions in global markets.

Earlier, Trump had also said on social media that Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim that Iranian officials later denied.