Quick overview

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According to Reuters estimates, the surge in crude prices is boosting fiscal revenues, though significant fiscal and production risks remain.

Russia’s revenues from its main oil tax are set to double to about $9 billion in April, amid a global oil and gas crisis triggered by the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran.

The estimate represents one of the first concrete indications of the extraordinary windfall the war in Iran could generate for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter. Industry traders say the conflict has already sparked the most severe energy crisis in recent history.

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in late February, pushing Brent crude futures well above $100 per barrel.

Most of Russia’s income from its vast oil and gas industry is tied to production. The export duty on crude oil was eliminated at the beginning of 2024 as part of the so-called tax maneuver, a sector reform that has been implemented gradually over several years.

According to Reuters calculations based on preliminary production and price data, Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil is expected to rise to roughly 700 billion rubles ($9 billion) in April, up from 327 billion rubles in March. Revenues also increased by about 10% year-on-year compared with April last year. For the full year 2026, Russia expects to collect 7.9 trillion rubles from this tax.

Strong demand for Russian energy

The average price of Russian crude used to calculate taxes climbed to $77 per barrel in March, its highest level since October 2023, according to data from the Economy Ministry. That represents a 73% increase from February’s $44.59 and exceeds the $59 per barrel price assumed in the federal budget for this year.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that demand for Russian energy remains strong across several markets, as a severe global energy crisis shakes oil and gas markets.

However, the windfall has limits. Russian economists have repeatedly warned that 2026 could still prove to be a challenging year. Russia posted a fiscal deficit of 4.58 trillion rubles, equivalent to 1.9% of GDP, between January and March 2026, the Finance Ministry reported on Wednesday.

At the same time, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure—aimed at undermining Moscow’s finances—have also weighed on revenues and threaten potential cuts in oil production.

Ultimately, the scale of Russia’s extraordinary revenues will depend on how long the crisis in Iran lasts.