Quick overview

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Silver futures are currently trading in a critical zone after failing to sustain momentum toward the $80 mark. After rotating back below the Daily Mean at $77, the market is now testing the Daily Buy 1 level at $74, a change from bullish expansion to a reversion phase.

However, China’s insatiable appetite for silver drove overseas purchases to an eight-year high at the beginning of 2026 as importers fueled a spike in industrial and investment demand.

According to Chinese customs data, the largest buyer received over 790 tons in the first two months, including nearly 470 tons in February—the highest amount ever for that month. Due to strong demand, local prices have risen significantly above global benchmarks, reducing already low exchange reserves and acquiring metal from overseas.

A wave of speculative buying from China and other countries caused silver prices to soar by roughly 70% at the beginning of the year, but at the end of January, they abruptly gave up their gains. This was the most volatile start to a year for silver prices. The robust import numbers indicate that, despite changes in trade flows, physical consumption in China has continued.

Demand has come from solar manufacturers front-loading production and retail investors hoarding silver bars as an alternative to increasingly expensive gold.

Chinese trade policy is another source of stress for the world silver market. China has approved 44 companies to export silver in 2026 and 2027, according to a December Reuters report. This demonstrates that exports are now part of a regulated system rather than being free. This is a crucial structural factor for a market already experiencing tight inventories.

Goldman Sachs had already noted that China’s new export restrictions might make the silver market even more volatile.  China has required authorization for outgoing shipments of silver since January 1, 2026.

This raises the possibility that price fluctuations will become more pronounced and liquidity will decrease. The market would then become more divided into local submarkets instead of operating as a cohesive worldwide system. Inventory and physical availability become crucial, especially in such a setting.