Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Slips to $3,224 as Rate Cut Bets and Jobs Data Loom

Gold prices (XAU/USD) plummeted to a two-week low on Thursday, coming in at around $3,224 an ounce. That slide was largely driven by the U.S. Dollar Index’s (DXY) 0.4% gain, which made bullion more expensive for international buyers. As trade tensions seemed to ease, gold lost some of its luster as a safe haven.

President Donald Trump’s comments on potential trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan have given markets a bit of a breather. But uncertainty remains high—especially as investors wait with bated breath for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.

“Gold retraced as trade war concerns eased, but confidence is still on shaky ground,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. He noted that while gold’s recent pullback is a pullback, the Federal Reserve’s dovish bias could offer a medium-term safety net once the market shakes off its April panic.

Gold Technical Outlook: Where Support Levels Are Put to the Test

From a technical standpoint, gold is clinging to its key support levels by its fingernails. The price has broken below both the 50-hour EMA and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $3,246. Right now, the metal is hovering around $3,235, just above the $3,224 support zone tied to April’s lows. A break below that level could see prices slip further toward $3,195 and $3,175.

The MACD indicator remains firmly in bear territory, with momentum still on the side of the bears. The descending trendline from recent highs continues to suppress any significant recovery attempts.

Key levels to watch:

• Resistance: $3,246-$3,260

• Support: $3,224, followed by $3,195 and $3,175

• EMA: 50-hour at $3,287, acting as a ceiling

Eyes on the Fed, Jobs Report and Labour Day Flows

Beyond the technicals, traders are also digesting signs of economic slowdown. The U.S. economy contracted in Q1 for the first time in three years, partly due to a surge in pre-tariff imports. That’s got traders expecting the Fed to resume rate cuts by mid-year—possibly totalling 100 basis points by year-end.

Friday’s U.S. jobs report will offer critical insight into the Fed’s next move. A weak print could accelerate rate cut bets and breathe new life into gold. Meanwhile, Chinese markets will be closed May 1-5 for Labour Day, which may temporarily reduce liquidity and amplify volatility.

Final Thoughts:

The next few sessions could be pivotal for gold. If it breaks below $3,224, short-term traders may target $3,195. For longer-term investors, the focus will likely shift to Fed policy and inflation dynamics as potential drivers of a renewed uptrend.