SMCI Stock Soars 40% to $45 on Saudi Deal, Analyst Boost for Super Micro Computer

Quick overview

The SMCI stock price has rebounded in dramatic fashion after a rocky April, riding a wave of AI optimism and international partnerships to log back-to-back 20% rallies.

Turning the Tide After a Rough April

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) stunned the market earlier this month when it slashed its fiscal Q1 2025 guidance ahead of earnings, citing a slowdown in enterprise demand and postponed purchases due to macroeconomic headwinds. That warning sent the stock tumbling to its lowest levels in months—dipping below $30—as nervous investors sold off in response to what appeared to be fading momentum in the AI-driven infrastructure boom.

Despite the downgrade, SMCI found solid technical footing at its 100-day simple moving average on the weekly chart, a level that proved to be a key support zone. As selling pressure eased, the stock began to stabilize, setting the stage for a powerful reversal.

Raymond James Sparks AI Optimism, Saudis Follow Up

Momentum returned with force at the start of this week. On Tuesday, shares surged nearly 20% to close at $38.89, up sharply from Monday’s $33.48 close. The catalyst was a bullish note from Raymond James, which named Supermicro a leading force in artificial intelligence infrastructure and issued a new price target of $41.

SMCI Stock Chart Weekly – Facing More MAs Above

Calling the company “one of the best-positioned players” in the AI hardware space, the firm encouraged clients to seize current price levels, which it saw as undervalued given the long-term demand for custom-built, high-efficiency server solutions. The endorsement sparked a 16% intraday gain, and additional buying after hours pushed the day’s rally closer to the 20% mark.

$20 Billion Saudi Deal Ignites Another Surge

The rally didn’t stop there. Before U.S. markets opened on Wednesday, news broke of a landmark deal with DataVolt, a Saudi Arabian data center operator, which added more fuel to the fire. The $20 billion agreement focuses on powering next-generation AI infrastructure in the Middle East and positions Super Micro Computer as a key supplier in one of the fastest-growing regions for cloud and AI services.

Shares opened with a gap higher, briefly hitting $46.55 before settling at $45—a weekly gain of 40% despite lingering concerns from April’s guidance cut. The announcement also benefited SMCI’s ecosystem partners, including Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), both of which gained this week following reports of AI collaboration between Supermicro and Humain, an AI venture backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

A Shift in Sentiment and the Road Ahead

The sudden swing in investor sentiment marks a dramatic reversal for SMCI. After weeks of caution driven by macroeconomic jitters and softening enterprise demand, the market appears to be re-embracing the long-term growth potential of AI-focused infrastructure, particularly in international markets like Saudi Arabia where funding is both strategic and large-scale.

Whether the momentum holds will depend in part on upcoming earnings and the degree to which Supermicro can convert new pipeline deals into scalable revenue. But for now, the stock’s explosive rebound is a reminder that in the AI era, market narratives can turn sharply—and quickly.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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