Anglo American Voting Rights Shift Leads to Target Cut and 6% Share Price Drop—Breakdown or Rebound?

Quick overview

Anglo American shares slumped sharply last week as market sentiment turned cautious despite solid cost savings and a landmark platinum demerger.

Shares Drop Sharply Amid Technical Breakdown

Anglo American (JSE: AGLJ) stock closed last week down 6%, sliding from approximately 540 ZAC to 510 ZAC. This move formed a bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart—often seen as a technical signal for further downside momentum. Broader South African equities also posted losses, reflecting rising market jitters..

AGLJ Share Price Chart Weekly – Descending Trend Since 2022

On a longer time frame, a descending trendline has been forming, connecting lower highs since early 2024. Ths trend, combined with resistance around the 540 ZAC level—where multiple moving averages converge—suggests continued downward pressure on AGLJ shares.

AGLJ Share Price Chart Monthly – Stuck Between 2 MAs

Importantly, the stock has struggled to regain ground above its 50-month SMA since last August, while the 100-month SMA continues to act as near-term support. A clean break below this could expose the stock to further declines toward the 400 ZAC zone and possibly the 200-month SMA near 370 ZAC.

Barclays Trims Price Target, Market Reacts

Investor sentiment took another hit after Barclays analysts lowered their price target for Anglo American from £26.50 to £26.00 on Tuesday. The modest cut reflects cautious optimism but sent a signal that near-term headwinds still loom for the diversified miner.

In parallel, Anglo announced a change in voting rights disclosures following a transaction by Norges Bank. Capital Group now holds 4.88% of Anglo American’s voting rights, reflecting institutional repositioning post-restructuring.

Earnings Provide a Glimmer of Support

Despite the price dip, Anglo American’s recent 2024 financials offered some much-needed support for the long-term outlook. Even with a 10% decline in average commodity basket prices, the company preserved a 30% EBITDA margin, underpinned by aggressive cost discipline.

Notably, Anglo saved $1 billion in 2024 and is now running at a $1.3 billion annualized rate, outpacing internal targets. Management aims to push that figure to $1.8 billion by end-2025, which would greatly enhance profitability and operating leverage.

Valterra Platinum: Strategic Shift in South Africa

A major corporate transformation also took place with the successful demerger of Anglo’s South African platinum business, now known as Valterra Platinum.

Backed overwhelmingly by shareholders in April, the move saw about 51% of Anglo’s stake spun off to form a newly listed entity. Valterra began trading independently on both the London Stock Exchange and Johannesburg Stock Exchange on Monday, June 2, 2025, following the May 31 implementation date.

This separation is part of a broader realignment strategy, enabling Anglo to streamline its core focus while giving Valterra operational independence.

Outlook: Can Fundamentals Offset Technical Risk?

While the charts point to continued downside risk in the short term, Anglo American’s operational improvements and portfolio restructuring may lay the foundation for a longer-term recovery. Investors will be closely watching upcoming commodity price trends, inflation data, and whether the company can continue executing its cost strategy amid a cooling global growth environment.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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