Forex Signals Brief June 19: SNB Cuts Rates to Help Economy, BoE and FED Hold

As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty swirl, central banks in the US, UK, and Switzerland take a cautious approach, leaving...

Written by: Skerdian Meta • Thursday, June 19, 2025 • 3 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Traders Seek Clarity: SNB Set to Cut, BoE Waits, Fed Stays Neutral

Quick overview

Central banks in the US, UK, and Switzerland are adopting a cautious approach amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve maintained steady rates while projecting potential cuts in 2025, despite acknowledging inflation pressures.
The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut rates due to softening inflation, while the Bank of England is likely to hold steady amid mixed economic data.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin faces resistance near $100,000, while Ethereum shows strength with a recent 20% increase.

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As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty swirl, central banks in the US, UK, and Switzerland take a cautious approach, leaving traders and investors scanning for clarity on policy direction and market momentum.

Fed Remains Cautious Despite Hotter Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting delivered few surprises, as it held rates steady and issued a balanced statement noting high uncertainty. While Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged incoming inflation pressures in goods, his press conference was largely shrugged off by markets. The key takeaway was the Fed’s wait-and-see stance, with projections suggesting two rate cuts in 2025, though Powell emphasized that outlooks remain fluid and data-dependent.

The US dollar strengthened modestly during the session, particularly against the yen and the euro. USD/JPY climbed from 144.60 to 145.15, and both the euro and pound dropped by approximately 40 pips. Despite the slightly dovish tone, Powell remained upbeat on the economic outlook, even as some indicators, like softening labor market figures and sluggish growth forecasts, hint at emerging fragility.

Today’s Forex Market Events:

SNB Poised for Rate Cut as Swiss Inflation Softens Further

Across the Atlantic, the Swiss National Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing its policy rate to 0.00%. Swiss inflation slipped into negative territory in May, with headline CPI at 0.1% year-on-year and core inflation easing to just 0.5%. Although economic activity remains relatively resilient—thanks to steady service-sector optimism and 0.5% quarterly GDP growth—the persistent disinflation trend supports a one-time rate cut. Further easing beyond June appears less likely at this stage.

Bank of England Likely to Hold Steady Amid Mixed Data

The Bank of England, meanwhile, is set to maintain its 4.25% policy rate. April inflation data surprised to the upside, with headline CPI rising to 3.5% and core price pressures remaining sticky, particularly in the services sector. While analysts agree that this inflation strength may be temporary, concerns linger.

Signs of slowing momentum in the UK labor market—rising unemployment and softening wage growth—support expectations for a rate cut later in the year. August is being floated as a potential inflection point, with analysts anticipating a longer easing cycle if economic headwinds persist into Q3.

Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with gold retreating as a result, the EUR/USD jumping above 1.16 but returned back below 1.15, while stock markets retreated on Friday. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Holds Gains as Geopolitical Premium Lingers

Gold continues to trade near $3,250, holding onto last week’s gains. Although typically seen as a haven during times of conflict, its reaction to recent Middle East tensions has been subdued due to strong USD performance and elevated rates. However, medium-term support remains firm as real yields decline and macro uncertainty grows. Traders are eyeing a retest of the April high above $3,500, while a break below $3,200 could spark a deeper pullback. Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2025.06.18 22:47 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

USD/JPY Climbs on Capital Outflows, Not Just Rates

In currency markets, the USD/JPY pair has diverged from traditional interest-rate differentials, gaining ground largely due to capital outflows from Japan. As investors seek higher returns and safe havens amid rising geopolitical risks, the pair advanced from 143.40 to 144.31. Analysts suggest this move is more flow-driven than fundamentally based, and unless risk sentiment improves, the upside may be limited. Key resistance sits at 145.00, with support near 142.70. Chart USDJPY, D1, 2025.06.17 22:36 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USD/JPY – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin (BTC): Heavy Resistance, Light Support

Bitcoin, which briefly surged past $110,000 in late May, has since pulled back and is hovering near $100,000. The 20-day moving average has capped further gains, and the 50-day SMA now acts as near-term support. The crypto remains vulnerable to geopolitical jitters and waning risk appetite, and without new ETF inflows or bullish news, it may drift lower toward $95,000.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Ethereum (ETH): Strength in Structure and Sentiment

Ethereum (ETH), on the other hand, has outpaced Bitcoin in recent weeks. Bolstered by institutional interest and the successful Pectra update—which enhanced wallet usability and staking performance—ETH has climbed over 20% since April. Although it faces resistance at the 200-day moving average, a sustained move above that level could set the stage for a breakout toward $4,000.

ETH/USD – Daily Chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.