Silver Price Rejected at $36.83: What’s Next as Traders Eye Fed Cut & $35.67?
Silver (XAG/USD) hit a ceiling just below $36.83, unable to push past a descending trendline that’s acted as dynamic resistance since...
Quick overview
- Silver (XAG/USD) is facing resistance just below $36.83, unable to break through a descending trendline since mid-June.
- Recent price action shows signs of exhaustion, with long upper wicks indicating sellers are defending the lower high structure.
- The MACD is flattening, suggesting weakening bullish momentum, while a tightening wedge setup hints at a potential volatile breakout.
- Traders are also monitoring macroeconomic signals, as potential Fed rate cuts could influence capital flows into silver and other precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) hit a ceiling just below $36.83, unable to push past a descending trendline that’s acted as dynamic resistance since mid-June. After briefly reclaiming the 50-period EMA at $36.32, bullish momentum faded, and the price pulled back, flashing signs of exhaustion. The 2-hour chart paints a clear picture—long upper wicks on recent candles suggest sellers are stepping in near this zone, defending the lower high structure.
Technically, momentum is cooling. The MACD, which had shown signs of strength earlier in the week, is beginning to flatten out. Histogram bars are shrinking, and a crossover to the downside could be imminent. It’s a classic case of a market in transition—caught between a well-established support base and a stubborn descending ceiling.
Setup Signals: Squeeze Before the Break?
Silver’s price action is compressing within a tightening wedge. Higher lows from the $35.29 area show some support from the bulls, but without a clean breakout above $36.83, bears may take control again. The compression is setting the stage for a volatile breakout—direction remains uncertain, but the technical signals are becoming clearer.
Key Technical Highlights:
- 50 EMA at $36.32 acting as near-term support
- Downtrend line capping upside since mid-June
- MACD shows signs of weakening bullish momentum
- Bearish engulfing and long-wick candles suggest supply at highs
A breakdown below $36.32 could open the door toward $36.05, with further risk extending to $35.67. A close above $36.83, however, would likely flip sentiment and send price toward $37.29 or even $37.68.
Fed Cuts May Shift Capital to Silver Alternatives
Traders are also watching macro signals. Markets are pricing in a 63-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, likely beginning in September. While President Trump has pushed for immediate easing, most Fed officials remain cautious, with only two openly backing a July cut.
Lower interest rates generally support precious metals like silver, which offer no yield. But with sentiment shifting, speculative flows may be rotating into alternative metals. “Some length is leaving gold and finding its way into platinum and palladium,” says Edward Meir, analyst at Marex, hinting that silver might soon face similar positioning shifts.
This mix of technical resistance and macro crosscurrents keeps silver in a wait-and-watch zone—where patience may pay off for those ready to pounce after the breakout.
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