Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Hits $3,324 as Trump Tariff Tensions and Rate Talk Spark Rally

Quick overview

Gold (XAU/USD) rallied sharply on Tuesday, climbing to $3,324 as investors turned to safe-haven assets ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. The latest surge came as the U.S. dollar weakened, trade uncertainty escalated, and former President Donald Trump renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

The dollar index slipped 0.2%, hitting a new three-year low and boosting gold’s appeal for international buyers. “We’re seeing support from both a softer dollar and growing anxiety over Trump’s tariff timeline,” noted Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

Tensions are rising as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that previously announced tariffs, ranging from 10% to 50%—will take effect from July 9 unless trade agreements are finalized. Markets are bracing for impact, particularly in the context of U.S.-Japan negotiations showing limited progress.

Adding to the pressure, Trump reportedly hand-delivered a list of foreign interest rates to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, urging a U.S. rate cut in line with Japan’s 0.5% to Denmark’s 1.75%. While many traders expect easing later this year, Frappell cautioned, “I’m surprised the market is so confident in aggressive Fed action.”

Technical Outlook: Breakout Sets the Stage for Further Gains

Technically, gold has broken out above its descending channel, suggesting a bullish shift in momentum. After rebounding from support at $3,245, the metal now trades near $3,324, sitting well above the 50-period EMA at $3,309.

This is the first close above the upper boundary of the falling channel since mid-June, an encouraging sign for bulls. The moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator has also shifted higher with a bullish crossover and growing histogram bars, adding further support to the breakout.

Key Resistance Levels:

• $3,349 – Immediate resistance
• $3,393 – Secondary target
• $3,429 – Extended upside if momentum holds

A sustained move above $3,349 on strong volume would confirm a bullish continuation. However, failure to hold above $3,309 could trigger a pullback and invalidate the setup.

Gold Trade Setup: Bulls Target $3,429 with Volume Confirmation

Entry Idea: Go long on a close above $3,349, ideally confirmed with a volume spike.

Stop-Loss: Place below $3,295 to limit downside risk.

Targets:

• $3,393 – Initial target
• $3,429 – Final target based on pattern extension

While momentum is improving and macro conditions are supportive, traders should remain cautious. Holiday-thinned liquidity and the upcoming U.S. payroll report could inject volatility into the market.

For now, gold’s path is higher, but confirmation and discipline remain key.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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