Oil Forecast: WTI Eyes $69 as Triangle Pattern Tightens, Dollar Slips

WTI crude oil is stuck in a tight range this week with WTI crude at $65.50, supply side pressure vs macro uncertainty.

Written by: Arslan Butt • Wednesday, July 2, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Quick overview

WTI crude oil is currently trading at $65.50, facing supply pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty.
US crude inventories increased by 680,000 barrels last week, contradicting seasonal trends, while OPEC+ plans to raise output for the fifth time.
A weakening US dollar is providing support for crude prices, making oil cheaper for international buyers.
Traders are awaiting the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which could influence rate hike expectations and oil demand.

WTI crude oil is stuck in a tight range this week with WTI crude at $65.50, supply side pressure vs macro uncertainty. Price action has compressed into a symmetrical triangle, breakout could be imminent especially with OPEC+ supply hikes and US labor data coming up.

On the supply side, US crude (USOIL) inventories rose 680,000 barrels last week, defying seasonal drawdowns. Demand is softening and OPEC+ is about to increase output for the 5th time.

Geopolitical risk is on the backburner for now with tensions easing after the Israel-Iran ceasefire and traders can focus on economic data and the Fed’s next move.

OPEC+ Supply Builds, But Dollar Drop Offers Cushion

The 411,000 bpd OPEC+ supply hike is already priced in. But actual flows are ramping up faster than expected. Saudi Arabia alone increased exports by 450,000 barrels per day in June, its highest in over a year, according to Kpler data.

Despite supply growing, crude prices are finding support from a weakening US dollar which just hit a 3.5 year low. A softer dollar generally supports dollar denominated commodities like oil by making them cheaper for international buyers.

Now attention turns to Thursday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. If the data is soft, it could lower rate hike expectations and increase risk appetite and oil demand.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Technical Outlook: Triangle Breakout Setup

Technically WTI crude oil (USOIL) is stuck in a symmetrical triangle with support at $64.03 and resistance at $66.06. Momentum is building but traders are waiting for a volume backed move.

Oil Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key Indicators:

50-period EMA at $65.63 and capping short term rallies
MACD is turning bullish, early momentum shift
Volume is low, indecision before NFP data

Trade Scenarios to Watch:

Bullish Setup

Entry: Above $66.06 with breakout confirmation
Target 1: $67.12
Target 2: $69.04
Stop: $64.00

Bearish Setup

Entry: $64.00 with MACD rollover
Target 1: $62.85
Target 2: $61.47
Stop: $66.06

Conclusion:

WTI crude is range bound for now but the chart is tightening and the macro is shifting. A break above $66.06 could lead to $69 if the dollar weakens or labor data is soft. OPEC+ supply risks are mostly priced in, so all eyes are on the Fed and Friday’s jobs data to break the stalemate.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.