XAU/USD – Daily Chart
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Forex Signals Sept 12: UK GDP and Michigan Sentiment Next on Deck
US Stocks continued to reach new highs yesterday after the jump in unemployment claims, while today we have the UK GDP and UoM Consumer Sent
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Last updated: Friday, September 12, 2025
Quick overview
- U.S. stocks reached new highs as investors overlooked mixed economic signals, with the Dow Jones up 1.36%.
- Despite rising unemployment claims, traders focused on potential Fed rate cuts, driving the U.S. dollar lower.
- Attention is now on the upcoming UK GDP release, which is expected to show slower growth compared to previous months.
- Cryptocurrencies remain volatile, with Bitcoin rebounding off recent lows and Ethereum nearing its all-time high.
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MARKETS TREND
US Stocks continued to reach new highs yesterday after the jump in unemployment claims, while today we have the UK GDP and UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Wall Street Extends Record Run
U.S. equities pushed to fresh highs on Thursday as investors shrugged off mixed economic signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.36%, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.72%. Financials and non-tech sectors led the rally, while falling Treasury yields added fuel to the surge.
Inflation and Labor Market Data
Markets faced a combination of hotter-than-expected CPI inflation and rising unemployment claims, which reached their highest levels since 2021. Texas stood out with an unexpected spike in claims, but equities brushed it off. Traders instead leaned on the dovish angle, with futures now pricing in nearly three quarter-point Fed rate cuts this year.
The shift drove the U.S. dollar lower and pushed 10-year Treasury yields briefly below 4% for the first time since Liberation Day, reinforcing bullish momentum across risk assets.
Key Market Events to Watch Today
Spotlight on UK GDP
Attention is now turning to Friday’s UK GDP release. July growth is projected at just 0.1% month-over-month, slowing from June’s 0.4%. On a quarterly basis, Q2 GDP is expected at 0.3% Q/Q, well below the 0.7% pace of Q1.
Analysts caution that earlier gains were heavily influenced by government spending on vaccinations, which does not reflect underlying economic momentum. Both ING and Investec suggest growth likely carried into July, but at a slower rate, reinforcing expectations of a subdued expansion.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment on Watch
Alongside UK data, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be a key reading for U.S. markets. Confidence remains fragile, with households pressured by higher tariffs, job insecurity, and persistent price increases. Analysts warn that public finances remain stretched, with tariff revenues failing to deliver the fiscal benefits promised by policymakers.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,600. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17, while main indices closed higher. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Holds Near the Highs
Meanwhile, gold continues to attract strong safe-haven flows although we saw a slight pullback yesterday. Prices surged above $3,674 early yesterday, hitting a new record high, so buyers are in total control, while China has resumed buying bullion. Technical charts now highlight the $3,700 level as the next major resistance, which will be broken soon as the upside accelerates, however an upside-down daily candlestick is a bearish signal, which could indicate a deeper pullback after such a rally.
USD/JPY Continues Trading in the Range
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Starts Rebound Off the 20 SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, however we saw a rebound off the 20 weekly SMA (gray) yesterday.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $4,500
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941. However we saw a retreat to $,000 lows over the weekend, but yesterday buyers returned.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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