Solid 2026 Outlook and Buyback, Yet Investec Share Price Hesitates to Break 2024 Highs
Investec has delivered strong returns since 2020, but despite resilient fundamentals, the share price has struggled to break past its...
Quick overview
- Investec has seen over 100% share price growth since 2020, but struggles to surpass its late-2024 peak.
- Despite strong earnings expectations, the stock has faced resistance and a recent 3.8% decline as market sentiment cools.
- The bank's pre-close trading update indicates it remains on track to meet full-year guidance amid challenging market conditions.
- Investec's outlook suggests potential for renewed growth if earnings align with guidance and macro conditions improve.
Investec has delivered strong returns since 2020, but despite resilient fundamentals, the share price has struggled to break past its late-2024 peak.
Share Price Performance Since 2020
Over the past five years, Investec has rewarded shareholders with impressive gains in both South Africa and the UK. The Johannesburg-listed INLJ stock closed the week at R132.33, marking a rise of more than 100% since 2020.
On the weekly chart, the stock convincingly crossed above its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) earlier this year, a signal of potential continuation toward record highs. However, since July, momentum has cooled, and the price slipped 3.8% last Friday, as investors showed hesitation in pushing beyond the 2024 resistance zone.
Key Resistance and Market Sentiment
Back in May, the share price tested its critical resistance levels but failed to breakout. Even with encouraging earnings expectations last week, buyers could not sustain the rally. This highlights a period of consolidation, with traders waiting for fresh catalysts before committing to new highs.
Pre-Close Trading Update (1H2026)
Investec released its pre-close trading update for the interim period ending 30 September 2025, covering the five months through 31 August 2025. Management noted that, despite a challenging macro backdrop and market volatility, the Group remains on track to meet its full-year guidance.
The bank emphasized its focus on scaling operations, strengthening client franchises, and enhancing offerings. As part of its capital management program, Investec has already repurchased approximately R1.1 billion (£46 million) of the R2.5 billion (£100 million) buy-back plan announced in May 2025.
Earnings Guidance
- For the six months ending September 30, 2025, Investec expects:
- Adjusted EPS: 38.7p–41.5p (vs. 39.5p in 1H2025) → about 2% lower to 5% higher year-on-year.
- Headline EPS: 35.2p–38.0p (vs. 36.6p) → about 4% lower to 4% higher year-on-year.
- Basic EPS: 36.0p–38.8p (vs. 36.6p) → about 2% lower to 0.6% higher year-on-year.
Southern African operations are expected to lag last year’s robust performance, with adjusted operating profit seen ~5% lower at R5.89 billion (£252 million). However, the credit loss ratio is projected between 15–35bps, within the low end of its through-the-cycle range, while ROE for the region is expected around 18.5%, safely within its 16–20% target band.
Outlook: Despite consolidation below the 2024 peak, Investec continues to deliver consistent performance and maintain shareholder returns through its buy-back program. If earnings remain within guidance and macro conditions stabilize, the stock could be positioned for another attempt at fresh highs.
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