XAU/USD – Daily Chart
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Forex Signals Sept 23: Services, Manufacturing PMIs, As Gold Price Heads to $4K
Gold made yet another record high yesterday as it heads to $4,000, while today the US and European services and manufacturing...
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Last updated: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Quick overview
- Gold reached a new record high of $3,748, driven by strong North American demand amid ongoing inflation concerns.
- Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding rate cuts, with some advocating for aggressive easing while others suggested a more measured approach.
- Equity markets remained resilient despite Fed commentary, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hitting fresh records, bolstered by Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI.
- Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum, diverging from traditional correlations with equities, while Ethereum surged towards $4,800, nearing its all-time high.
Live BTC/USD Chart
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MARKETS TREND
Gold made yet another record high yesterday as it heads to $4,000, while today the US and European services and manufacturing will highlight the day.
Fed Officials Signal Caution on Rate Cuts
Concerns about inflation kept Federal Reserve policymakers on a cautious path. Officials Hammack and Musalem emphasized that the economy remains resilient—possibly even improving—and warned against making deep additional cuts. In contrast, Miran pushed for an aggressive 200 basis points of easing in the near term, while Barkin struck a more neutral tone, suggesting that business confidence could be supported without rushing policy changes.
Markets Brush Off Fed Commentary
Despite hawkish undertones, equity markets remained upbeat. Stock futures pointed to a 0.4% decline early in the session, but momentum flipped, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.6%, both notching fresh records. Nvidia also fueled sentiment after confirming a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, boosting tech optimism.
Gold and Bitcoin Diverge
Gold prices extended their rally to new highs, driven by persistent North American buying. Analysts cited political turbulence and fiscal concerns as tailwinds pushing safe-haven demand higher.
Bitcoin, however, remained stuck in consolidation. While the Nasdaq climbed more than 10% in recent months, Bitcoin has traded flat, signaling that the traditional correlation between the two assets has broken down.
Currency Market Moves
In FX, the euro rebounded from a three-day slide, climbing toward 1.1800 as sentiment stabilized. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar (loonie) diverged, with flows rather than commentary appearing to drive direction, even as Carney highlighted the economic split with the US.
PMI Data in Focus This Week
Eurozone Flash PMI (Tuesday)
- Manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 51.0 (from 50.7)
- Services PMI forecast to hold at 50.5
- Composite PMI projected at 51.2 (up from 51.0)
Oxford Economics suggests the update will provide a clearer picture of Q3 growth trends, though at current levels, the data still reflects only modest GDP expansion.
UK Flash PMI (Tuesday)
- Services PMI seen dipping to 53.9 (from 54.2)
- Manufacturing PMI expected at 46.9 (from 47.0)
- Composite PMI projected to ease to 53.0 (from 53.5)
August data showed momentum improving to a one-year high, led by services. However, Investec analysts expect manufacturing to remain subdued, with caution setting in ahead of the November budget.
Global Data Watch: Key Events Driving Markets Today
EZ Flash PMI (Tue):
Expectations are for September’s manufacturing PMI to rise to 51.0 from 50.7, services to hold steady at 50.5 and the composite to tick higher to 51.2 from 51.0. As a reminder, the prior release saw the composite PMI metric move further into expansionary territory with the pace of expansion ticking up to a one-year high. This time around, Oxford Economics notes that the data “should offer a more complete picture of what growth looked like during Q3”. The desk adds that it expects “a small improvement in the Eurozone numbers, although at current levels, the PMI still suggests a weak pace of GDP growth.
UK Flash PMI (Tue):
Expectations are for September’s services PMI to decline to 53.9 from 54.2, manufacturing to slip to 46.9 from 47.0 and composite to slide to 53.0 from 53.5. As a reminder, the prior release saw the August composite metric extend further into expansionary territory thanks to a jump in the services component. The accompanying report noted the data indicated “that the pace of economic growth has continued to accelerate over the summer after a sluggish spring, the rate of expansion now at a one-year high”. This time around, analysts at Investec expect a sideways movement in the manufacturing PMI on account of caution ahead of the November budget.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17.80, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Continues the Rebound
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher. Yesterday buyers continued to push and XAU reached another record high at $3,748.
USD/JPY Continues Trading in the Range
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns Lower to the 100 SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, however we saw a rebound off the 20 weekly SMA (gray) yesterday.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Heads to $4,o00 Again
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941. However we saw a retreat to $,000 lows over the weekend, but yesterday buyers returned.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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