Forex Signals Sept 29: PCE Inflation to Test Fed’s Patience on Policy and TSLA Sales

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This week’s economic calendar is packed with pivotal Jobs data such the NFP that could influence not only U.S. monetary policy expectations but also global market sentiment.

PCE Report Highlights Stability in Inflation

Last Friday’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—showed price growth steady at 0.2%, exactly as expected. Meanwhile, personal spending and personal income both rose, signaling that consumer activity remains robust despite recent market volatility.

A string of upbeat data shaped sentiment heading into the new week, pointing to underlying strength across major sectors of the U.S. economy.

Housing Shows Signs of Gradual Stabilization

Existing home sales came in at 4.00 million (vs. 3.96 million expected), dipping slightly by -0.2% month-over-month but still outperforming forecasts. Home prices climbed 2.0% year-over-year, while inventory rose 11.7% year-over-year—indicating that the housing market may be finding a floor, though recovery remains gradual.

Durable Goods Orders Deliver an Upside Surprise

In a bright spot for manufacturing, durable goods orders jumped +2.9% (vs. -0.5% expected), while core capital goods gained +0.6%. This marked a significant turnaround after several months of weak readings and suggests renewed strength in business investment. The goods trade deficit narrowed sharply to -$85.5 billion (vs. -$95.2 billion expected), reversing much of the earlier tariff-related distortions. However, wholesale inventories fell -0.2% in August, mainly in nondurable goods, highlighting softer restocking momentum as businesses remain cautious about demand.

Growth and Labor Market Remain Robust

The Q2 GDP was revised higher to +3.8%, driven by stronger consumer spending and final sales. On the labor front, initial jobless claims dropped to 218,000 (vs. 235,000 expected), keeping claims near the low end of their 2025 range and reinforcing the view that the jobs market remains resilient.

Data in Focus This Week

Investors will be particularly focused on the labor-market reports to gauge the health of hiring and wage dynamics. With inflation trends in the Eurozone and U.S. wage data also on deck, any surprise—positive or negative—could spark volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies. Markets are bracing for a potentially pivotal week that may shape the Fed’s next steps and set the tone for Q4 trading.

Tesla Q3 Sales

In an effort to take advantage of U.S. EV tax credits, analysts have raised their estimates for Tesla’s third-quarter sales to between 448,000 and 456,000 vehicles, which are anticipated midweek. But fears about demand are maintained by lackluster Europe figures, dwindling incentives, and impending cheaper models.

JOLTS Job Openings – Tuesday

• The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will offer insight into labor demand across the U.S. economy. Investors will be looking for any signs of cooling in job openings, which could indicate easing wage pressures.

RBA Cash Rate Decision – Tuesday

• The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate is expected to remain steady at 3.60%. Any hints in the accompanying statement about future rate cuts or a change in tone could influence market sentiment on both equities and the dollar.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Wednesday

• The ADP report will serve as an early gauge of private-sector hiring ahead of Friday’s official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release. A stronger reading could raise expectations for a more robust labor market.

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y – Wednesday

• Inflation in the Eurozone is forecast to rise slightly from 2.0% in August to 2.2% in September. This modest uptick will be closely watched for clues about future European Central Bank policy and its impact on global bond yields and currency markets.

Weekly U.S. Unemployment Claims – Thursday

• Initial claims data will provide a near real-time snapshot of labor-market health. A sustained decline in claims would bolster confidence that the labor market remains resilient despite rate cuts and slower growth.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – Friday

• The marquee report of the week is expected to set the tone for markets heading into October. Any upside surprise in NFP could boost risk appetite in equities and weigh on bond prices, while a softer print might reinforce dovish Fed expectations.

U.S. Unemployment Rate – Friday

• The unemployment rate will be closely tracked to confirm whether labor market strength is holding up. A rise in unemployment could pressure the Fed to consider further easing.

Average Hourly Earnings m/m – Friday

• Wage growth remains a critical factor for inflation and Fed policy. A cooling in earnings would be welcomed by markets as it suggests inflationary pressures from labor costs may be easing.

Forex Signals Update

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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