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Forex Signals October 3: Markets Brace for Delayed NFP as Fed Signals Caution on Rate Cuts
Investors are turning their focus to the delayed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for markets next week, even a
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Last updated: Friday, October 3, 2025
Quick overview
- Investors are closely watching the delayed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could influence market trends next week amid a government shutdown.
- Private labor data indicates a significant drop in layoffs, suggesting stability in the labor market despite a slowdown in hiring.
- Federal Reserve officials are advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance inflation concerns with economic resilience.
- Commodity markets reacted to the Fed's tone, with gold prices fluctuating and crude oil experiencing losses.
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MARKETS TREND
Investors are turning their focus to the delayed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for markets next week, even as Fed officials urge patience on further rate cuts.
Government Shutdown Disrupts Data Flow
The ongoing government shutdown entered its second day, forcing the postponement of several key reports, including weekly jobless claims, factory orders, and the much-anticipated NFP release originally scheduled for Friday.
This delay leaves traders without crucial labor-market data at a time when the Fed’s policy path hinges heavily on signs of economic cooling.
Private Labor Data Signals Fewer Layoffs
Despite the disruption in official releases, private-sector data offered some insight into employment trends.
The Challenger job-cuts report showed that U.S. employers announced 54,064 layoffs in September, down sharply from 85,979 in August and 26% lower than the same period last year.
The decline suggests that, while hiring has slowed, layoffs remain relatively contained—an encouraging sign for labor-market stability.
Fed Officials Strike a Cautious Tone
Two prominent Fed policymakers—Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee—delivered remarks highlighting the central bank’s delicate balancing act.
Logan emphasized that inflation remains above target and has ticked higher, warning that the Fed must avoid easing policy too aggressively. She described the recent rate cut as an “insurance” move against a potential labor-market slowdown but stressed that demand remains resilient and risks remain two-sided.
Goolsbee echoed this cautious stance, underscoring that policymakers should avoid “over-front-loading” rate cuts, favoring a measured approach to additional easing.
Their comments tempered hopes for swift, deeper rate cuts and lent support to the U.S. dollar, which strengthened during the session.
Commodities React to Fed Tone
Gold briefly tested the $3,900/oz level but failed to break higher, retreating after reaching an intraday high of $3,897 and settling mid-range near $3,819.
Crude oil extended losses, slipping below a key swing area between $61.45 and $61.94, to trade at $60.73/barrel, down 1.68% on the day.
Key Data Ahead: Thursday’s Watchlist
US Jobs Market in Focus
Economists expect average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% m/m, in line with the previous reading.
Non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 51K, more than double the prior month’s 22K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%.
The labor market has cooled noticeably, with job openings and hiring activity lower than earlier in the year. Unemployment is now at a four-year high, although layoffs remain limited with jobless claims steady near 230K.
Participation rates have struggled to rebound, limiting potential labor-supply gains. A further rise in unemployment above 4.3% could support expectations for another 25-bps Fed rate cut at the late-October FOMC meeting, according to Wells Fargo analysts.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the pullback move toward 1.1450, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Pulls Back But Buyer Resurface
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher. Yesterday buyers continued to push and XAU reached another record high at $3,896.52 but retreated lower later to slip below $3,820, although buyers cme back and we saw a rebound late in the US session.
USD/JPY Continues to Bounce in the Range
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Reclaims the $120K Level Again
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, breaking the 20 weekly SMA (gray) as well but we have seen a strong rebound this week, sending the price above $120K.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Heads for $4,500
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941 but we saw a retreat which sent ETH below $4,000. Yet buyers are back and now ETH is heading for $4,500.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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