Gold Eyes $3,900 as NFP Data and U.S. Shutdown Test Fed’s Rate-Cut Outlook
Gold steady as US NFP looms, traders await shutdown impact Gold prices held steady on Friday, a seventh consecutive weekly gain...
Quick overview
- Gold prices remained steady, marking a seventh consecutive weekly gain as traders await the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
- The NFP is expected to show only 52,000 jobs added in September, indicating a slowing labor market amid a government shutdown.
- Federal Reserve officials are cautious about future rate cuts, with traders anticipating two more cuts this year based on economic data.
- Technically, gold is showing weakness with key support levels at $3,819 and $3,794, while resistance is at $3,864 and $3,897.
Gold steady as US NFP looms, traders await shutdown impact Gold prices held steady on Friday, a seventh consecutive weekly gain as traders prepare for the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Markets are expecting just 52,000 jobs added in September, following August’s downwardly revised 22,000 – a slowing labour market.
The report comes at a sensitive time with the US government shutdown in its second day. A prolonged standoff could delay critical economic data and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. “The dollar has slowed gold’s rise but the metal is still within striking distance of $3,900,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.
Fed Signals Caution Amid Shutdown Risks
Fed officials are cautious despite the September rate cut. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said last month’s cut was an “insurance” move against labour market deterioration, warning that future cuts would depend on the data.
With inflation easing and unemployment expected to rise to 4.3%, traders are pricing in two more Fed cuts this year. A weaker NFP print could reinforce that view and give gold more upside momentum as investors seek protection against uncertainty.
Key drivers for gold right now:
- NFP forecast: 52K vs 22K prior
- Unemployment rate expected at 4.3%
- US shutdown delaying economic reports
- Fed cautious on further rate cuts
Gold Technicals: Bears Eye $3,819 Support
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of its rising channel at $3,846 and is looking weak. Consecutive red candlesticks with shallow lower wicks show sellers in control, while RSI at 45 suggests fading momentum without being oversold.
Supports are at $3,819 and $3,794, with more downside risk if those break. Resistance is at $3,864 and $3,897.
Trade Idea (Bearish Bias):
- Entry: Short on a close below $3,845
- Stop-Loss: Above $3,864
- Target: First $3,819, then $3,794
This setup is for traders looking for more weakness, but a bullish reversal candle above $3,864 would challenge the bearish case.
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