Bitcoin Price Prediction: Strong Bounce Suggests $130K Soon as ETF Inflows Anchor BTC
During its tumultuous week, Bitcoin fell to a record $20,000 due to fears of a trade war, but the largest cryptocurrency in the world....
Quick overview
- Bitcoin experienced a historic $20,000 drop due to trade war fears but rebounded to around $115,000 by the weekend.
- Institutional inflows, particularly from Bitcoin ETFs, absorbed the shock and prevented Bitcoin from falling below $100,000.
- The rally was fueled by macro optimism and crypto-friendly policies, with discussions of Bitcoin adoption gaining traction in several countries.
- Despite short-term volatility, analysts predict Bitcoin could retest record highs by year-end, supported by strong institutional demand.
Live BTC/USD Chart
During its tumultuous week, Bitcoin fell to a record $20,000 due to fears of a trade war, but the largest cryptocurrency in the world recovered thanks to large institutional inflows and rate-cut confidence.
A Record-Breaking Week of Chaos
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) endured one of its most turbulent stretches in 2025, surging to an all-time high of $126,000 before collapsing to $105,000 in a single day following Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. The shock sparked widespread panic across global markets, erasing nearly $380 billion in Bitcoin’s market capitalization and triggering the largest liquidation wave in digital asset history.
The panic didn’t spare equities or crypto, as traders rushed out of risk assets. However, by the weekend, Bitcoin had stabilized and rebounded near $115,000, proving once again its resilience in volatile macro environments.
Technical Support Holds Steady
Despite the massive intraday drop, Bitcoin found critical support at its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA)—a level that has repeatedly marked the end of major corrections in past bull cycles. The rebound off that technical floor suggests the broader uptrend remains intact.
Rally Fueled by Policy and Sentiment Shifts
The earlier peaks—$123,000 in July and $124,000 in August—set the stage for Bitcoin’s record climb. Crypto-friendly policies from the White House and growing interest from institutional players pushed BTC into new territory. The latest push over $126K reflects investors’ search for alternative assets as the U.S. government shutdown weighs on confidence in traditional markets, despite the Friday’s tumble.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – The 50 SMA Held Firm
Momentum indicators such as the stochastic oscillator also turned higher, pointing toward renewed buying interest and a potential continuation of the longer-term rally.
Institutional Inflows Cushion the Fall
One of the most striking aspects of last week’s chaos was how institutional capital absorbed the shock. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.72 billion in net inflows for the week ending October 10, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which alone attracted $2.63 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC saw an additional $88.9 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC and ARK 21Shares ETF experienced only minimal outflows.
These inflows prevented Bitcoin from breaking below the key $100,000 threshold, highlighting the strength of institutional demand. IBIT now controls nearly 800,000 BTC—about 4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply—and manages close to $100 billion in assets, making it the fastest-growing ETF in U.S. history.
Macro Forces and Policy Shifts Fuel the Narrative
The rally to $126,000 earlier in the week was driven by a blend of macro optimism and crypto-friendly policies from Washington. As the U.S. faces a prolonged government shutdown and mounting debt exceeding $37 trillion, investors have increasingly turned to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.
The Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot–with futures markets pricing in a 90% probability of another rate cut*—has added to the bullish tone, supporting risk assets and digital currencies alike. Globally, discussions around sovereign Bitcoin adoption continue to gain traction, with the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand exploring policies to integrate BTC into national reserves.
Outlook: Institutional Anchors and Macro Momentum
While short-term volatility remains high, Bitcoin’s broader structure continues to point upward. With ETF inflows still robust, macro tailwinds strengthening, and central banks staying dovish, institutional accumulation is likely to keep the price well-supported. Analysts now see potential for BTC to retest record highs before year-end—provided trade tensions don’t spiral into a deeper global risk-off event.
Conclusion: Despite its largest single-day drop on record, Bitcoin’s rebound underscores a maturing market increasingly driven by institutional conviction rather than retail euphoria. With $2.7 billion in ETF inflows and rate-cut optimism returning, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency appears well-positioned to weather short-term shocks and continue its long-term climb toward higher ground.
Bitcoin Live Chart
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