Gold Price Forecast: Could XAU/USD Hit $4,175 This Week?
Gold jumped to new highs on Monday on geopolitical jitters and the renewed US-China trade war. President Trump announced 100% tariffs...
Quick overview
- Gold prices surged to new highs due to geopolitical tensions and a renewed US-China trade war, with President Trump announcing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
- Silver also reached new highs, driven by safe-haven demand, although analysts warned of potential volatility and sharp pullbacks.
- Gold has increased by 54% this year, influenced by central bank buying and economic uncertainty, while markets anticipate further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
- Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with key resistance levels identified and potential entry points for traders.
Gold jumped to new highs on Monday on geopolitical jitters and the renewed US-China trade war. President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and new export restrictions on critical software. China defended its rare earth export controls, saying they were necessary but stopped short of retaliatory tariffs. Markets saw the escalation as a new risk to global supply chains.
Silver also hit new highs, riding the same safe-haven wave. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted strong private investment flows in silver over the medium term but warned that silver’s volatility will outpace gold’s so expect sharp pullbacks in the near term.
So far this year gold has risen 54% driven by central bank buying, ETF inflows, rate cut expectations and broader economic unease. With the US government shutdown delaying key data, markets are looking to central bank signals and geopolitical developments to guide next moves.
Monetary Winds: Fed Cuts & Speech Watch
The pricing of monetary policy is getting more and more in gold’s favour. Markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and another cut in December.
All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the NABE annual meeting Tuesday, a big moment for forward guidance. Other Fed governors will also speak this week, giving opportunities for subtle shifts in tone.
But don’t forget the macro backdrop:
- US shutdown is complicating economic data calendars
- Tariff stories are feeding into inflation and growth fears
- Safe-haven demand may intensify if geopolitical tensions widen
These dynamics could support gold’s upward trend or force a pullback if central banks downplay the urgency.
Gold Technical Outlook: Climbing the Channel to $4,175
Gold is firmly back inside the channel, reclaiming space above $4,070 after bouncing off the midline at $3,981. The structure of higher highs and higher lows is still intact, bulls are in control.
A bullish engulfing candle at $4,015 was a big turn, pushing towards resistance between $4,093 and $4,133 – now a very tight range.
Indicators are in line with the bias. RSI is at 70, overbought but not yet reversing. If weakness comes in a small retrace to $4,057 or even $4,015 could be a safer entry point before the next leg up.
The 100-period SMMA (currently around $3,868) is the longer term anchor. A break above $4,093 and $4,133 would confirm the bullish trend, targeting $4,175. But a break below $3,946 would invalidate the trade and put risk to $3,868.
Trade:
- Look for pullbacks above $4,015 as entry zones
- Target $4,133 to $4,175
- Stop below $3,946
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save