Harmony Gold Steadies as Gold Finds Its Footing – JSE: HAR Finds Support After 25% Pullback
Harmony Gold share price spectacular 2025 rally has cooled after a steep correction in bullion prices, but with solid earnings, a dividend..
Quick overview
- Harmony Gold's share price experienced a significant rally in 2025, rising nearly 96% before a midyear correction due to falling gold prices.
- Despite the pullback, the company's fundamentals remain strong, with a 26% increase in annual profit and a dividend hike from 0.94 rand to 1.55 rand per share.
- Harmony's strategic acquisition of MAC Copper Limited for $1 billion diversifies its revenue base and reduces dependence on gold.
- Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Harmony, citing its financial discipline and the potential for sustained earnings growth amid favorable market conditions.
Harmony Gold share price spectacular 2025 rally has cooled after a steep correction in bullion prices, but with solid earnings, a dividend hike, and a $1 billion copper acquisition, the miner remains firmly on investors’ radar.
Harmony Gold Stabilizes After Sharp Pullback
Rising Gold Prices Power Early-Year Gains
Harmony Gold (JSE: HAR) emerged as one of South Africa’s strongest performers in 2025, soaring nearly 96% year-to-date before a midyear correction set in. The surge tracked the global gold rally, which peaked at $4,381 per ounce before easing back to around $4,000. Despite the retracement, gold — and Harmony — both found late-week support, hinting at renewed buyer interest.
HARJ Chart Daily – The 50 SMA Held As Support
At its peak, Harmony’s share price climbed to R388, marking a record high before slipping nearly 25%. The miner’s impressive early-year run reflected renewed investor confidence as falling global interest rates and safe-haven demand buoyed the gold sector.
Technical Trend Still Intact
Even with the pullback, Harmony’s broader trend remains bullish. After a temporary slide from April’s R362 high to near R290, the stock found solid support at its 20-month simple moving average (SMA). Historically, this level acted as a launch point for previous rallies, including in early 2024.
HARJ Chart Monthly – Strong Rebound Off the 20 SMA Once Again
A reversal signal appeared in August, confirmed by September’s rally to all-time highs, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Gold Prices Find Support After Steep Correction
After soaring to an all-time high of $4,381 per ounce earlier in 2025, gold prices faced a sharp correction as profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions prompted a temporary pullback toward the $4,000 level. However, the decline appears to have stabilized late in the week, supported by renewed investor demand amid persistent inflation concerns and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in early 2026.
Gold Chart Daily – The 20 SMA Is Holding As Support
The broader macro backdrop remains favorable for the precious metal, with weakening global growth, a softer dollar, and sustained central bank purchases all helping to maintain upward pressure on bullion. For miners like Harmony Gold, this renewed stability could reignite bullish sentiment and provide a solid foundation for the next leg higher.
Strategic Expansion into Copper
In a decisive strategic shift, Harmony completed its $1 billion acquisition of MAC Copper Limited, giving it a foothold in the industrial metals market. The transaction includes Australia’s CSA Copper Mine, expected to add roughly 40,000 tonnes of annual production.
This diversification not only broadens Harmony’s revenue base but also reduces its dependence on gold. The move was well received — HSBC upgraded the stock to “strong buy”, praising the miner’s financial discipline and expansion strategy.
Financial Strength Reinforces Confidence
Harmony’s fiscal 2025 results confirmed its operational resilience despite sector headwinds:
- Annual profit rose 26% year-over-year, driven by higher ore grades and record gold prices.
- HEPS climbed to 23.37 rand, up from 18.52 rand, beating analyst forecasts.
- Production dipped 5%, but stronger grades and higher realized gold prices offset the decline.
These figures highlight Harmony’s ability to maintain profitability even amid rising costs and regulatory challenges.
Dividend Growth and Valuation Outlook
Management reinforced investor confidence with a dividend increase from 0.94 rand to 1.55 rand per share, signaling healthy cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns. The payout places Harmony among the few large-cap miners offering both growth and income appeal.
While the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19.7 and P/S ratio of 2.8, slightly above industry peers, analysts argue the valuation premium is warranted. Continued gold price support, improved efficiency, and copper diversification underpin expectations of sustained earnings growth.
Outlook: Resilient Despite Headwinds
Although Harmony’s rally has paused alongside gold’s correction, the company’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. The combination of disciplined financial management, strategic diversification, and steady market demand for both gold and copper positions the miner well for the next leg of the commodities cycle.
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