Gold Price Prediction: $4,060 Breakout Looms as Dollar Weakens and Fed Divides

Quick overview

Gold prices edged higher on Friday, trading at around $3,997. It’s because a renewed dollar softness and dovish rate expectations buoyed investor sentiment. Private-sector job data revealed a cooling US labor market, bolstering bets of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December. A prolonged US government shutdown and legal challenges to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies further fueled demand for safe-haven assets.

Peter Grant, senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, noted that gold remains “on track for a strong year-end,” projecting a $4,300–$4,400 per ounce target range. Traders are now split, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack arguing against further cuts due to persistent inflation, highlighting growing division within the Fed.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls Guard $3,965 Support

Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a steady pattern of higher lows, supported by a rising trendline since early October. The 20-EMA remains intact above $3,965, reflecting cautious bullish momentum. Recent Doji and spinning top candles near support suggest consolidation, while a bullish engulfing candle earlier this week signals buyer defense.

The RSI at 52 reinforces moderate upward strength, though not yet overbought. Key resistance lies at $4,045–$4,060, followed by $4,142 and $4,227, where volume confirmation could accelerate momentum.

Gold Trade Setup: Watching for a Break Above $4,060

For traders, a buy-on-break strategy above $4,060 targets $4,142, with a stop below $3,965. A downside break could test $3,883. Overall, gold’s structure signals cautious optimism — higher lows, resilient RSI momentum, and a weaker dollar backdrop may soon ignite the next bullish leg if resistance gives way.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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