EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro Holds 1.1543 Support as Traders Await Key US Data
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1580 after recovering modestly in the early European session. The pair remains cautious as traders wait...
Quick overview
- EUR/USD is trading around 1.1580, showing cautious recovery as traders await significant US economic data releases.
- Recent US economic figures, including a rise in the Empire State Manufacturing Index, have provided some support to the euro.
- Comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have introduced uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, with markets pricing less than a 50% chance for December.
- The EUR/USD pair is currently respecting a descending trendline and key support at 1.1543, with potential movements dependent on upcoming US data.
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1580 after recovering modestly in the early European session. The pair remains cautious as traders wait for a heavy week of US economic releases, including the ADP jobs report, Factory Orders, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. These reports could reset expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move, keeping investors unwilling to take strong positions against the dollar.
Recent US figures added some support to the euro. The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 18.7 in November, its highest reading in nearly a year, while US construction spending rose 0.2% in August. The data helped soften the dollar’s tone, but not enough to break the euro out of its broader consolidation.
Fed Signals Add Uncertainty
Comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller added another layer of uncertainty, suggesting AI-driven efficiency could ease labor demand and influence future rate-cut discussions. Markets still price less than a 50% chance of a December cut, leaving traders focused on incoming speeches from Vice Chair Michael Barr and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin for more direction.
Short-term sentiment remains mixed, with markets balancing stronger US activity data against expectations of cooling labor conditions.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
EUR/USD continues to respect the descending trendline that has capped every rebound since late September. The pair is now sliding back under the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart, signaling soft intraday demand. Despite this, buyers have defended 1.1543 several times, making it a key line for the short term.
- A break below 1.1543 exposes 1.1468, the next major support
- Resistance remains firm at 1.1668
- RSI at 46 reflects mild bearish bias without clear exhaustion
- A close above the trendline could open a push toward 1.1725
What’s Next for EUR/USD?
For now, EUR/USD is stuck between strong support and a stubborn trendline. A break of either side will likely align with this week’s US data releases. Until then, the euro may drift within its current range, with momentum tilted slightly lower unless buyers step in above the trendline.
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