TMC Stock Attempts A Comeback After Rare Earth Hype Faded, Targeting $11
After an explosive October rally collapsed under the weight of fading hype, The Metals Company is now attempting to steady itself as...
Quick overview
- The Metals Company experienced a dramatic rally in October, driven by geopolitical tensions and enthusiasm for critical minerals, but has since seen its stock price plummet below $5.
- Despite the recent decline, there are early signs of stabilization as long-term buyers have stepped in, suggesting a potential short-term rebound.
- The initial surge was closely tied to China's export restrictions, but as diplomatic tensions eased, the urgency for TMC's stock diminished, leading to profit-taking among traders.
- Ongoing financial losses, environmental concerns, and the complexities of deep-sea mining continue to pose significant risks to TMC's long-term viability.
After an explosive October rally collapsed under the weight of fading hype, The Metals Company is now attempting to steady itself as technical levels attract cautious buyers.
Speculation Turns Into A Brutal Reality Check
The Metals Company delivered one of the most dramatic market stories of the autumn. An aggressive surge carried the stock above $11 in October, fuelled by geopolitical unease and enthusiasm around so-called “critical minerals.” The move appeared unstoppable for a moment. But as fast as it climbed, the rally unraveled. By mid-November, TMC was trading below $5, but has rebounded to $7.90 on DB news about hiking the Gold price forecast, making a huge gain in after hours trading and exposing how quickly speculative optimism can shift.
Deutsche Bank Higher Gold Price Prediction
As structural demand increases, Deutsche Bank raises its 2026 gold prediction to US$4,450. Although Deutsche Bank’s caution on Fed cutbacks and equity-market concerns tempers runaway euphoria, the upgrade strengthens the positive skew in precious metals, reinforcing long-standing gold exposure and central bank demand storylines.
Due to a unique combination of structural and technical factors that keep pushing the metal above past trends, Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold forecast. This has helped rare earth metal companies such as TMC. The bank now projects that gold will hit US$4,450/oz in 2026, up from its earlier estimate of US$4,000/oz. The trading range is expected to expand to US$3,950–4,950/oz.
Technical Picture Shows Early Signs Of Stabilisation
Despite the violent pullback, the stock has now found a measure of support. On the daily chart, long-term buyers stepped in around the 200-day simple moving average, halting the decline. Although several shorter-term moving averages remain overhead and could act as resistance, price action has improved enough to suggest that selling pressure has eased.
TMC Chart Daily – MAs Are Under Attack
On the weekly timeframe, the 50-week moving average has held firm as a base. Last week’s candle formation resembled a doji, often interpreted as a sign of indecision following an extended decline.
TMC Chart Weekly – Testing the 20 SMA Again as Support
This week, price has started to push higher, hinting at a potential short-term rebound. Whether this develops into a sustainable recovery remains uncertain, but momentum has at least shifted from panic to cautious optimism.
Geopolitical Tailwinds Fade Away
TMC’s explosive rise was tied closely to tensions in the rare earth market after China introduced export restrictions on critical minerals. This sent shockwaves through global supply chains and ignited speculative buying in Western alternatives. For a brief period, The Metals Company became a symbol of resource independence.
But the narrative changed once diplomatic tensions cooled. Following renewed dialogue and a commitment to reduce trade barriers, China agreed to relax its controls, easing fears of an imminent supply crisis. Almost overnight, the urgency that fuelled TMC’s rise evaporated.
As the scarcity argument weakened, traders rushed to lock in profits. The result was a rapid unwinding of positions, turning the so-called “rare earth revival” into a short-lived rally based more on headlines than fundamentals.
Policy Support Fails To Offset Fundamental Risks
While U.S. policy offered an initial boost, the long-term reality is more complex. An executive order to accelerate deep-sea mining approvals briefly raised expectations that TMC would fast-track its projects. The company’s ambition to extract valuable metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese from the ocean floor remains central to its vision.
However, commercialisation is still a distant goal. TMC continues to operate at a loss, and the capital required to scale deep-sea mining remains substantial. Even with regulatory progress, technology costs, environmental requirements and operational complexity continue to weigh heavily on the company’s outlook.
Recent earnings also disappointed, highlighting ongoing inefficiencies and reinforcing concerns that additional funding may be needed. Any future capital raise could dilute shareholders and further pressure the stock.
Environmental And Financial Uncertainty Lingers
Beyond financial challenges, environmental opposition is becoming more vocal. Scientists and environmental groups warn that mining the seabed could cause irreversible ecological damage, potentially triggering stricter regulation or future bans. That risk hangs over TMC like a cloud, limiting long-term investor confidence.
For now, the stock appears to be stabilising after its dramatic fall. But the larger story has shifted. What was once a high-flying bet on critical minerals has transformed into a more cautious assessment of risk, regulation and reality.
Whether this rebound becomes a meaningful recovery or just a temporary pause in a broader downtrend will depend on more than just technical signals. It will depend on execution, funding, and whether The Metals Company can turn its vision into a sustainable, profitable business.
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