Quick overview

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Apple is expected to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025 for the first time in 14 years, according to Counterpoint Research. Apple will ship about 243 million iPhone units this year, compared to Samsung’s 235 million.

 

Samsung’s share of the global smartphone market is expected to be 18.7%, while Apple’s is expected to be 19.4%. Sales are not directly correlated with shipments, which are the quantity of devices that vendors send to retail channels. Nonetheless, they offer information about consumer demand and sales projections from smartphone manufacturers.

The iPhone 17 series, introduced in September, and had a “bumper” holiday sales season, according to Counterpoint, is the main driver of Apple’s success. US sales of the iPhone 17 series, including the iPhone Air, were 12% greater than those of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e, in the first four weeks following launch, according to the research firm. China is an important market.

The replacement cycle reaching its turning point is the primary factor driving the improved shipment outlook amid extremely favorable market reception for the iPhone 17 series. According to Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, “consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” the note stated.

According to Counterpoint, Samsung may encounter difficulties from Chinese competitors in the low-to-mid tier of the smartphone market, making it difficult for the South Korean behemoth to regain the top spot.

AAPL shares have demonstrated resilience in late November 2025, trading in a comparatively narrow range. The stock closed at $277.55 on November 27, 2025, a slight increase from $276.97 on November 26 (the day the shipment news broke).

With consistent volume (usually 40–60 million shares per day) and a year-to-date gain of about 25%, shares have rallied by about 3%  from early November levels around $270. Average 12-Month Price Target: $278–$289, with highs at $345