Silver Price Forecast Weekly: XAG Extends Rally Toward $56.68 as Markets Brace for Heavy U.S. Data
Silver closed the week on a strong footing, rising sharply toward $56.68 as traders responded to a run of mixed but generally softer...
Quick overview
- Silver prices rose sharply to $56.68, driven by softer US economic data and a weaker dollar.
- Key economic indicators showed cooling inflation, with Core PPI rising only 0.1% and retail sales softening to 0.2%.
- Pending Home Sales unexpectedly increased by 1.9%, indicating early signs of stabilization in the housing market.
- Silver's technical outlook remains strong, with support at $54.40 and potential for further gains if prices break above $56.68.
Silver closed the week on a strong footing, rising sharply toward $56.68 as traders responded to a run of mixed but generally softer US economic data. The metal benefited from a weaker dollar environment, cooling inflation indicators, and stabilizing demand across commodities.
The latest US Core PPI rose just 0.1% (forecast 0.2%), reinforcing expectations that price pressures are easing into year-end.
Retail Sales softened to 0.2% versus the 0.4% forecast, underscoring a cautious consumer backdrop ahead of the holiday season. Consumer Confidence fell to 88.7, well below the expected 93.4, suggesting households remain wary of higher borrowing costs.
Housing data provided the only upside surprise: Pending Home Sales jumped 1.9% against expectations of 0.5%, pointing to early signs of stabilization as mortgage rates ease from their peaks. Weekly Jobless Claims were also softer at 216K, suggesting the labor market hasn’t weakened enough to lock in aggressive Fed easing firmly. As a result, silver’s rally paused over the weekend, although buyers kept control.
Overall, last week reinforced the broader narrative: cooling inflation and slowing growth are supporting safe-haven and industrial metals, while restrained labor weakness prevents runaway dollar weakness.
Week Ahead: Key US Releases to Watch
This week brings a heavy slate of US data that could shape silver’s short-term direction.
Key expectations include:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon): Forecast 49.0 vs. 48.7 prior
- ADP Employment (Wed): Forecast 19K vs. 42K prior
- ISM Services PMI (Wed): Forecast 52.0 vs. 52.4 prior
- Challenger Job Cuts (Thu): Previous jump to 175% YoY
- Unemployment Claims (Thu): Forecast 220K vs. 216K prior
- Core PCE (Fri): Forecast 0.2%, matching previous
A softer ADP reading or a miss in services-sector data would reinforce expectations for the Fed’s December or early-2026 rate cut. That would be supportive for silver, especially if Core PCE aligns with the cooling trend seen in CPI and PPI.
OPEC meetings through the weekend also add a layer of volatility. Higher oil prices typically lift inflation expectations, which can indirectly support precious metals.
Silver Technical Outlook (XAG/USD)
Silver remains in a strong technical structure after breaking above the major $54.40 resistance, a level that capped rallies throughout October and early November. The breakout extended toward $56.68 before buyers paused, leaving room for consolidation.
The 4-hour chart shows price firmly above the 20-EMA at $53.52, with a clear sequence of higher lows forming since late November. This continued demand on dips suggests buyers remain committed.
The RSI near 78 is in overbought territory, suggesting immediate upside may be limited without a cooling pullback. A retest of the $54.40 support, now converted from resistance, would be healthy for trend structure. Holding this zone would keep momentum pointed toward $58.04 and then $59.44.
If sellers push below $54.40, the next deeper support is at $52.72, aligning with the prior consolidation zone and the broader rising trendline.
As long as price trades above the trendline and the 20-EMA, silver maintains a bullish bias heading into the week. A breakout above $56.68 would reopen the path toward the mid-$58s, while consolidation between $54.40 and $56.50 remains the most probable scenario in the near term.
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